Lucky Probabilities when trading older pokemons
What is the probability to get a lucky pokemon:
- when both have been caught on the day?
- when the oldest is 6 month old?
- when the oldest is 12 month old?
- when the oldest is 18 month old?
- when the oldest is 24 month old?
Answers
Two weeks ago I gave two Gyarados away, level 35 and level 32. They both went lucky. Consecutive trades, born 4/2018 and 4/2017. I've traded 4 other Gyarados and they all went 50% or worse. I've traded 8+ Dragonite, none of them went well/stayed above 65%. If you evolved it and kept it, probably has good IVs to start...best idea is to trade stuff like that to somebody that needs it more than you do and to someone with lesser standards than you have
Thats mostly what I do, those 12 were gastly to try for luckies prior ro raid day, and the 50 were dratini after ultra bonus/summer catch/hatches.
That same mentality is why I gave a few kyogre to a friend who just started up again for his low iv dragonite, he got a lucky kyogre on the first trade, but 30% on the other 3, got a lucky legacy dragonite, both of us agreed it was a win on both sides.
Nobody knows. We don't have sufficient data to accurately determine these rates and can't access the servers to read the data from there.
EDIT: The generic lucky rate for recent pokemon does seem to be somewhere around 3-5% based on my data since the IV floor was raised and the rates nerfed. TSR will probably publish a study at some point.
I have no accurate numbers, but my data corresponds well with the estimates of Housunkannatin. I counted 116 luckies with about 2300 trades, giving an overall lucky frequency of 5%. I have deleted quite a few luckies (20-30?), but have also obtained some guaranteed luckies and have made a considerable numbers of trades with old Mons from 2016. Most of my trades have been recently obtained high level or meta relevant Mons, however, a 3-5% luck rate seems about correct to me. Based on the experience with trading of more than 2 years old Mons from 2016, I have the impression the luck rate may be somewhere around 10-20%.
