What do you guys use Silver pinab on?
The only pokemon I would realistically find myself worn between the higher catch change of a GRB and the need for the more candy with the pinab is Tyranitar. I dont risk the pinab on legendaries, and a lot of other relevant pokemon in raids dont have a catch rate low enough to justify a GRB over a regular RB or have a large amount of candy else where. Tyranitar's really the only outlier, and for legendaries theres rarecandy, thats largely the whole purpose of the rarecandy stocks we have
I kinda feel like Tyrantiar is really the only pokemon Silver pinab are good forr, legendaries catch rates are so low I know most people only use GRB on them in raids.
Answers
I'd love to see that so-called mathematical proof, because that makes absolutely no sense. The odds on the last three balls do not change, so in cases where the pinap makes more sense statistically, it still makes more sense, in the long run, to pinap the last three balls.
Furthermore, any math from early on is now obsolete, since players can get three candies for trading, vs. one for transferring, which decreases the benefit of pinaps relative to the lower catch rate.
Nice proof, but it assumes a flawed premise by treating each encounter as an independent event. As the number of encounters approaches infinity, it is always better to use GRB's when p1*c1 > p2*c2. For example, I don't care about maximizing candies for any single Mewtwo encounter; I care about maximizing candies over the entirety of Mewtwo month.
In any case, this is completely irrelevant to silver pinaps (the subject of this thread), because with silver pinaps, there are no scenarios where p1*c1 > p2*c2. Therefore, silver pinaps should always be used.
It was you who started this whole comment tree by commenting on my comment where I explicitly stated "early on". Silver pinaps did not exist "early on". If you wanted to stay on the topic of silvers, why did you start this?
Here's what I believe is the original post on the topic by the way: https://www.reddit.com/r/TheSilphRoad/comments/7c9s81/pinap_or_golden_razzberry_thats_the_question/
It should help you understand how expected values work :)
Each encounter is an independent event, therefore maximizing the mean candy gain from each encounter will also mximize the gain from infinite number of encounters. I didn't check the case of silver pinaps, but even when limiting myself to 3 per encounter, I use more than I manage to get, so using only SP is not a Relevant option. I assume it's the same for most people.
I guess you haven't calculated expected values before, they can work in unintuitive ways. You can't just say that if it makes sense to pinap the first ball it makes sense to pinap the last ball, for a long term strategy all that matters is the probable amount of candies that each strategy gives.
You are right in that the trade candies change the equation, but I'm too lazy right now to check what the new optimum is.
I guess you just read the article to get an easy retort to try to seem smart and like you understand math beyond 1+1, which you apparently don't.
Bringing up the clause that when p2c2 > p1c1 you always pinap just underlines that you didn't actually take any time to understand the issue. If you had, you'd notice that p1c1 > p2c2 in pretty much any case involving Tyranitar, normal pinaps and GRB, even when taking into account the extra 2 candy from distance trading. Mentioning it is completely irrelevant to this discussion.
Mewtwo. I need Mewtwo candies more than I need more Mewtwos, and the catch rate math favors silver pinaps for maximizing candies.
catch rate multiplier with GRB = 2.5x
catch rate with silver pinap = 1.8x
silver pinap gives 13 candies for Mewtwo (10 for catch + 3 for trade), GRB gives 8 candies (5 + 3). In the long run, more candies will be gained from silver pinapping.
If the Mewtwo is kept and not traded, the math favors silver pinaps even more.
edit: And yes, I realize this is an oversimplification, but the more complicated and accurate calculation actually favors silver pinaps even more, because the true effective catch rate difference is actually smaller than the above numbers would imply.