No tangela seen from yesterday
Tangela is the Tier3 boss that I am interested the most, but it seems that tangela rarely spawns. I have checked almost 20 tier3 bosses in my city but not even one tangela appearing from yesterday noon. I play this game in the unblocked area in china. So I really doubt whether the tangela exists as a tier3 boss.
Answers
Yes, it is so strange. The last one I have seen happened in noon yesterday. Then I have checked more than 20 tier3 raids but not any tangela more. Since the possibility that this situation happens is quite low I assume that it is more like a bug rather than bad luck. So sad and need more observations.
The chance is low, but consider the amount of raids that happens in the world every day. It's a 1,2% chance that every one of 20 tier 3 raids isn't Tangela. But when you look at 20 different tier 3 raids 1000 times, you get on average 12 instances of not seeing the Tangela raid.
It's a common fallacy to assume that improbable means impossible. The more data points you have, the more likely it is to observe unlikely occurences and there are huge numbers of players. Just yesterday a friend of mine lucked into both shiny and 100% Pineco during his 7 first quests, a probability of approximately only 0,3%. Should I then assume that Pineco quests are bugged?
That said, it's entirely possible that it's a glitch or an accidental/purposeful alteration of the raid spawns by Niantic, you never know.
Haha, your friend's case does not fit here. The chance of meeting a 100% shiny pineco should be quite low in theory, whereas the spawn rate of any tire3 boss should be around 20% in theory. Then the actual rate of tangela in my place is less than 5% or even none of them from yesterday. In other word, low probability for the case that you give is common while such a low rate of tangela spawns is so abnormal. So compared to your friend's example, the rare spawns of tangela as a tire3 boss is more like a bug or glitch.
Whatever your other words make sense, and we need more observations to see whether tangela has gone in my place.
The chance of a 100% Pineco is 1/216, the chance of shiny Aerodactyl from research was 1/45, (I remembered 1/50 and used that). Assuming Pineco shares the same research shiny odds, finding both within 7 tries is (1-(1-1/216)^7)*(1-(1-1/45)^6)=0,4%.
The chance of any tier 3 raid being Tangela is 1/5, which makes for a (1-1/5)^20=1,15% chance of not seeing Tangela in 20 randomly chosen tier 3 raids.
I have no idea on what grounds you call a low rate of tangela spawns "abnormal". I just explained to you in the previous comment that low probability occurences are not abnormal, you're just one data point among the millions of pogo players. If it wasn't you, someone else was bound to run into the bad luck of not seeing Tangela raids for a day. And most likely many other people have. You take 1 million people who each observe 20 tier 3 raids and 11 500 of them will see the same total lack of Tangela raids. Likewise in my example, if you take 1 million people who each do 7 Pineco quests, 4000 of them will get both a shiny and a 100%. Admittedly, there will be more observances of 7 Pineco quests than 20 tier 3 raids in the real world, but that doesn't change the fact that we should expect to observe unlikely occurences. It's much more unlikely that everything you see will always be close to the average.
Haha, thanks for you calculation and explanation, so the chance that I meet a tangela in 20 randomly chosen tier3 raids should be 1-1.15%=98.85%. However the event with so high possibility doesn't happen. So from my personal view, the event that I never meet a tangela among more than 20 tier3 raids is quite abnormal. Then it is not exactly precise but ok for me to assume there is bug about tangela raids.
Thanks for commenting but you are so serious :) In addition my poor English expression maybe make some misunderstandings . But whatever we said here the fact is that I haven't seen any tangela as tier3 boss from yesterday noon to today night. I just wanna ask whether others meet the same situation rather than discuss any possibility stories.
"so the chance that I meet a tangela in 20 randomly chosen tier3 raids should be 1-1.15%=98.85%" Yes.
As for whether that not happening is abnormal enough to suspect a bug, ok sure, you can start suspecting, it is an unlikely occurence. But you don't really have any kind of a reasonable case until you have much, much more data. 1% odds is unlikely, but it's not suspiciously unlikely.
I've gotten pretty tired of seeing so many misunderstandings of how probabilities work that I tend to get serious about these topics, sorry about that. Asking for other people's experiences is perfectly valid, that's how finding out about changes or bugs often starts. I just try to remind people not to make assumptions based on insufficient data. In the vast majority of cases, the answer ends up being either "RNG" or "Niantic might have tweaked something in the servers but we will never know for sure".
Haha,so interesting. We are playing a game rather than doing some academic research. Most of your words are reasonable but useless to me. For me the extreme low rate of Tangela hatching is the truth, even now I haven't seen one. Compared to other tier3 bosses, it is absolutely an abnormal phenomenon. So I am currently pretty sure that the tangela has gone since Johto Festival went live. If you wanna go against my point please show me a screenshot of tangela appearing as a tier3 boss since yesterday, otherwise any words are simply useless :)
What we are doing is writing on a forum, not playing the game. If we want to analyze what is happening within the game, better do it properly. We are commenting on a site that puts massive effort into proper analysis to bring people useful information. People jumping to conclusions based on insufficient data and spreading rumors has caused bad things before.
Note that I was never saying "Tangela has not disappeared". The point was that based on just 20 raids observed by yourself, you didn't have reasonable proof yet. People post here weekly about similar issues and the vast majority of those posts are just one person experiencing weird RNG.
Then I also never say "Tangela must disappear" and keep using words such as "doubt, assume,need more observations" in my first several posts. It is quite interesting that you keep talking about how possibility works without carefully reading my post and any your personal observation. You have done 4 Tangela raids? Great, then I also did 2. But I clearly mentioned "from yesterday" in the title. Maybe you think you are very serious and responsible for this forum. However the fact of tangela disappearing means most of your words are actually useless. Haha, but anyway I like a serious man like you, so please keep going and enjoy yourself : D
I did see Piloswine the most yesterday (appx 4), and I did one while waiting for Regirock stragglers (people thinking there won’t be enuff...then 1 min before hatch realizing it isn’t that tough to beat). Then I caught 4 wild Piloswine yesterday. I don’t remember seeing any Tangela, but I wouldn’t have done one if I did.
It's Niantic's "R"NG - on Sunday, during a "Partly Cloudy" afternoon, 6 Tyranitars spawned in gyms in my area in a 3 hour period. Since then, there hasn't been a single report of a Tyranitar popping in those gyms.
As for Tangela, an EX-Eligible gym near me spawned 3 Tangela raids in one day that I personally saw, and did 2 of them. One at 8am, then one at 5pm and one again at 7pm.
It's just "R"NG, man.
