I’ve done about 920 trades, about 500 since luckies started. I just did twelve trades for 2016s, only 1 of them turned lucky. I traded with this same account past three evenings and had a better percent than that, I think the 2016 juice gets squeezed out of an account, then it is just throwing them in a bingo wheel. This one has about 40 left, I’m running out of things to give it—running thin on expendable Tyranitar (caught 75 raid TTs)/heracross/venusaur, don’t even have any evolved Granbull/Ursaring left to give it
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Any influence on IV reroll and chance for obtaining luckies by trading?
I have been traveling long-distance with my family and have traded for candy and for the Pilot medal, which turned out to be a breeze. I stand at approx 225 trades performed as Great friends, and have received a handful of potentially useful mons with high IV (>90%). I have seen several posts stating that IV distribution of traded Mons are random, except for the floors associated with different levels of Friendships. Is there any data suggesting an influence on IV reroll from other factors such as age of the Mons traded, the distance of the trade, the weather when trading etc?
A similar question applies for the chance of getting Lucky Mons, according to the information by Niantic, this chance increases with their age, although I see several comments below that this effect may not be great. I also see it is speculated that the weather may be of importance. Are these just speculations at present or are there anything we can do to increase our chances of obtaining lucky Mons?
Anyway, I am now planning for a new use of my "garbage" Legendaries that have been filling up my storage awaiting another double candy event. Instead of transferring them, I now plan to do a Special trade every day, the stardust cost is just 1600 for Ultra friends. I will definitively consider powering up lucky legendaries/ lucky shinies as long as IVs are reasonable (which there should be a good chance for with the 10-10-10 floor for luckies).
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I have so far mainly traded recent garbage Mons that I would have discarded anyway so I still have a number of gen 1 Mons from 2016 hanging around, that I could trade for "garbage" Legendaries. May be this could increase the chance of obtaining Luckies in the trade, assuming both Mons turns Lucky at the same time. But may be we do not need such old Mons, there could be a threshold effect so that all Mons above a certain age, has increased chance of turning into lucky? This threshold could merely be a few weeks or months, is there any information on this?
I'm not sure, but my rolling personal theory with older pokemon trading, maybe 1st 5 2016s you have 70-75% of triggering lucky. Next 10 2016s you have 50-55% chance, next 10 35%, down and down til the olds get you to the normal brand new trade rate.
I have 50 luckies I've gotten, seems 3 of them were both lucky and 93%. None with a higher IV %. Trading as ultra friends that don't trigger lucky I've gotten some 84-90%+. In those cases trading something that already has a high level very preferable. Who cares about a level 21 93% Venusaur that isn't a lucky one, but trading a level 34 bulbasaur/swinub/rhyhorn could get you something whether lucky triggered or not
The old Mons I have for trade are mostly evolved Mons with great IV, that I cannot keep with the current limitation in bag space. A trade reroll is therefore unlikely to improve their IVs further, the main reason for keeping them would be as luckies. It would be even better if they could be used in trades with legendaries to increase their chances of becoming luckies, it will be interesting to see what comes out of the research done at the Silph Road.
There is ongoing silph road research on this subject. Until there's enough data gathered, it's impossible to say with any certainty what affects it and how much.
Personally I've noticed that the first few days it seemed much easier to get luckies. On Sunday we whiffed on 4 old mons in a row and I decided not to waste any more of my older ones until I know how to maximize my chances. But it could all be RNG.
No, distance or weather don't have any influence at all. It's pure unfounded speculation. IVs reroll is totally random, only affected by the different friendship level floors, as you said.
For lucky pokemon, the only variable that Niantic acknowledged was "the longer your pokemon was in your storage". But this is their wording and our interpretation. So far, we interpreted that they mean "age". There may be other variables associated with spending time in our storage, such as "km walked as your buddy", "fights won", etc. But we have no information at all about that.
In any case, distance or weather have nothing to do with "time spent in your storage". So you can be 99.9% confident that these parameters have no influence at all in your chances for lucky pokemon.
Distance is great for candy, though. I'm doing exactly as you do. Trading everyday long distance legendaries and rare pokemon with ultra friends for the extra candy!
Yes, just as you say, we brought a bunch of long-distance garbage Mons with us home that we will use for trades for candy and lucky versions of legendaries/ shinies etc (or a particularly beneficial IV reroll). But I might as well wait with the majority of these a couple of months till we obtain best friend status. Then the long-distance Mons will have spent some time in our storage. Can we rule out the possibility that friendship level may have an influence on the chance of obtaining luckies?
