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Raid pool mini-rotation?

I've noticed something strange about raids, in the days before EX raids, about 4-5 days, Tier 4 raids appear much less frequently, and no tyranitar are at the ones that do appear, we have a large number of active players, and all the gyms are within sight by at least one person, and over the past 5 days, no one reported any tyranitar, and only 2 tier 4's, both being alolan marrowack. However today, we had at least 13 tier 4's, with either 3 or 4 houndoom, absol and marrowack, and one tyranitar. This is also odd as the number or raids does also change, as a lot of them do appear, and most gyms are left raidless for longer than normal, almost like the RNG or schedule for raids being put out is kept the same, but if a raid comes up as a tier 4, it's not spawned in.

Whats strange is ive seen this happen 3 times, each time it was before an EX raid and each time, the same thing happened with the teir 4's after the EX raid; around 5pm on the Friday after, Tyranitar and tier 4's come back in much greater numbers

Edit: Im not stating this as definitive facts, this is how it is, im just askng if anyone has seen a similar patern with the raids

Asked by MetagrossMaxis6 years 8 months ago
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I've noticed something strange about raids too. Unless you live in a city, you can't!

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I noticed nothing but T1-T2 on Ex locations lately, driving me mad using a pass on a low tier raid. D:

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Go ahead and start writing this all in a spreadsheet. Every raid every day. In about 4 weeks you can tell us the results

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haha, way ahead, been doing this since the last 2 Ex raids, and its the same, 4-5 days before an EX raid, 2-3 tier 4's before an EX raid and no tyranitar, the Friday after, massive spike in tier 4's and the first tyranitar in about a week, its consistent.

I looked back to the EX raid from 6 weeks ago, and it matches what happenedwith the EX raids 4, 2 weeks ago and what happened this week, the massive lull in raids before an EX, followed by that same spike in tier 4;s relative to previous days

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How many gyms are you watching and what radius? Without further research, this seems like selection bias trying to make sense of noise.

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We've got about 20 gyms within our limits of sight, and over a hundred active members in the group chat.

i've been looking back in the group chat, and it seems in the days before the EX raid, people were looking for tyranitar absol or houndoom raids to stock up, and there were none, as well as a few months ago at college, there was a period of about 5 days that happened every 2 weeks where there were no tier 4's (from my dorm I had about 8 insight by myself, with 14 covered by the groupchat across campus). im not saying this is what happens, im just saying this is a pattern ive seen consistently, and am wondering if anyone else has noticed soemthign similar

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What?

I wasn't stating it as "this is how the raids work" it was a question as to if others are seeing this, because the consistency of it made me question it being bad luck

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Your. Mileage. May. Vary.

It means you may experience different results depending on your particular situation.

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Ah, never was one for acronyms

I understand that, different places have different EX cycles, but it was the consistency with which this raid changes occurred that made me question of this wasn't bad luck, becaue if it was, there'd be some week that was off, but there wasn't, it was always consistent, which I found very strange

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Thats what i've been doing, and will keep doing, I hope it is just bad luck, and not some kind of mini raid rotation, but with niantic you never can know

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