I've been messing around with Pokebattler's raid simulations recently and got some interesting results when checking out one in particular.
Against a DT/OR Rayquaza in windy weather I expected some Ice types to get shuffled further down the TTW line in favor of those with dual dragon movesets. What struck me as add were some of the dragons chosen: DT/OR Rayquaza being #2 against itself was no surprise, but immediately behind that was DT/OR Gyarados at #3? Following that in #4 was Dragonite which makes sense, except that the moves listed are DT/DC as opposed to DT/OR. What's extra confusing is #5 goes to Latias with DB/OR, where between the two of them I would have expected DB/DC Latios, who itself is down at #11.
So what gives? Some of those choices are so down far down the DPS list here that I wouldn't ever consider them but they end up as top picks in a time to win situation?
EDIT: To the question "How many simulations were performed?" This is on their website:
"This raid analysis was based off simulating combat with a defending Rayquaza with 45468 CP and level 30 attackers. The simulation was run with the No Dodging attack strategy based on the Monte Carlo - Gold simulation type. 276,000 simulations were performed with each possible moveset of Rayquaza simulated against every single Pokemon with every possible moveset. The best 20 attackers with their best moveset based on Time to Win were kept and are displayed here. You can click on any of the attackers to see the simulation that was performed and to try different movesets."
Follow-up question I forgot to ask, in a group where I'm trying to fight for an extra damage ball or two what's better to look at, pure DPS or TTW situations?
In simulations, it can be altered pretty drastically if a Pokemon is able to barely get off an extra charge move.
Unless you're running thousands of runs, maybe that's the issue. The oddities are just cases that got lucky and pulled off the most charge move damage while alive (e.g. got energy fast by tanking a charge move, used their own, then died right after to a fast move).
This is there little descriptor about their simulations:
"This raid analysis was based off simulating combat with a defending Rayquaza with 45468 CP and level 30 attackers. The simulation was run with the No Dodging attack strategy based on the Monte Carlo - Gold simulation type. 276,000 simulations were performed with each possible moveset of Rayquaza simulated against every single Pokemon with every possible moveset. The best 20 attackers with their best moveset based on Time to Win were kept and are displayed here. You can click on any of the attackers to see the simulation that was performed and to try different movesets."
So they run a bunch of them.
My guess would be the bulk of the pokemon and how that energy gain affects them to get off certain charge moves before fainting. Like it just might happen that a DC Dragonite can get off an extra DC quicker, or before it can get off an O. Bulk would also make sense for Latias over Latios and the performance of Mew.
