I can't get CTMs anymore

Yes. You're a bad person.

Seriously, I've observed the same thing. Right around the time Alolan Eggy first came out, I had about 10, and I was liberal trying to get good Charged moves on the good ones. Then we got the SD announcement (meaning a bunch of SD/C and SD/FB Ttars would need to be CTMd to SD/SE, and I want to CTM my level 40 98% Ttar from B/SE to B/C). Now I'm down to 2, and can't seem to get one at all. Hopefully it's just a dry spell, and they will come back with a vengeance when I revert to the mean.

I've seen one out of my last 14 tier 3 solos. We are all being punished. I have not used it because I feel like having the possibility of using it is better than actually using it.

Haven't got a CTM for a tier3 in a long period. I have been lucky enough to get some from tier 5, though.

FYI, gym control doesn't give an extra bundle in T3 solos.

I've gotten 1 charged TM in my last 18 or so tier 5 raids...

On the bright side my terrible rare candy luck has largely turned, I've gotten a few 6s, some 9s, and even a 12!

No luck on TMs though. Had more charged than fast for a while and used them fairly liberally, now down to 1 and can't seem to get more.

Cool, glad to hear this, because I was in the same boat. I can save some money. Charge TMs are literally the only reason I was doing raids.

That explains why I have FTMs coming out my back side and haven't seen a CTM in forever. Rural players haven't been screwed in a while. It was due.

I got 2 CTMs from a Regice raid just a few days ago.

For an item that usually requires multiple to be used, to achieve a single desirable outcome, they are far too rare.

Making them rarer is not going to encourage more people to do more raids...because what is the point in having a large number of desirable pokemon from raids with useless movesets you can't change becuase the CTM are too rare?

At least you are guaranteed your preference with a FTM - CTMs can require a great number to get the outcome desired if RNG is against you at the time.

I used up 10 of them during community day. I am down to 12 and haven’t gotten one for over a week.

I've been doing 2-3 tier 3s a day (trying to gold 2 new gyms), and I've gotten less than 1 a day but more than 1 every two days. I think it's been 6 in 7 days including yesterday afternoon. (Not raided a 3* today yet.) I must be getting all your RNG.

You're not punished and they didn't reduce the CTM drop rate. I actually saw my CTM drop rate largely improve these past few weeks. I raid 2-4 times a week, mostly T5 and some T3 solos here and there. Between December and June, I must have received like 5-6 CTMs, with easily 3 months (making it about 30-40 in a row) without a single one. But I received 6 since end of May - beginning of June, the last 2 coming from a single Regice raid! Now my only Gardevoir *finally* has Dazzling Gleam instead of Psychic and my SD Tyranitar got SE after 3 CTMs. I may even be able fo *finally* get to work on those HS and CC Machamps and Hariyamas, I don't have a single one with DP except for *one* crappy IVs lvl 20 raid Machamp.

It's just luck or bad luck. This thread is proof: some people fall shortof CTMs, for some others it goes better. Having been able to use CTMs at will before and using many on SD Tyranitars doesn't help. They have always been rare for me so I use them after a lot of thought and I keep "good enough" suboptimal movesets (CC Machamps army FTW!).

One thing though: I had trouble beleiving this but it has been suggested several times that the more CTMs you have in your bag, the more likely you are to receive another one. However crazy and unlikely this sounds, it seems to work with me. When I have 0 CTM, I can wait a looooooong time to get another one. But if I have 2 CTMs in my bag, the 3rd one often comes after a week or 2. Maybe you can try to work on this... And if you get some pattern, i'm interested in the results ;)