Draco Meteor not clearly worse than Outrage
In looking at the numbers, it is not so clear to me that DM is worse. DM does 150 damage for 100 energy, and has a duration of 3.6 seconds. Outrage does 220 damage for 100 energy, with the two OR's taking 7.8 seconds. In the extra 4.2 seconds, DM allows nearly four extra DT's, thus bringing its total damage output to 207 (vs. 220) in the same amount of time, but the extra energy build from the 3.8 DT's gets you 1/3 of the way to launching the next DM. So, after the first cycle, DT/DM's damage ouput will be higher
As far as dodging goes, despite being a one-bar move, DM is way more dodge friendly. Not only does it have a shorter duration, but you only have to use it a little more than half as often.
If it were a case of being able to launch three O's vs. one DM, then yes, O would be better, but this is Dragonite, not a glass cannon like Alakazam or Victreebel.
Looking at raid simulations, O seems to be a little better against some bosses (notably Rayquaza and Latios/Latias), while DM is a little better against others (e.g. Groudon & Kyogre). Maybe overall a slight edge to O, but the better dodgeability of DM pretty much closes the gap.
I would say the real difference between the two comes down to a preference in playing style.
Answers
I understand exactly what you mean. If you have DM and are able to launch it twice before fainting, but aren't quite able to get off the fourth outrage, then you will have wasted almost half a bar with O, and nothing with DM.
If the Dragonite faints before a second DM can be launched, then O is more energy-efficient. If two DM's can be launched, DM equalizes for energy efficiency, and the longer the Dragonite survives, the more the calculation favors DM.
Taking into consideration that:
1. Outrage has a higher DPS rate in more scenarios than DM.
2. Is more useful taking down gyms.
3. Is more useful in the future raids and not past raids
I'd say Draco Meteor is clearly worse than Outrage. Its not bad, but it's clearly worse than outrage.
My two cents.
Well, "current" raids are temporary until they return (as Kyogre and Groudon apparently will soon). I think it is safe to assume all legendary bosses will return eventually, on some kind of rotating basis.
Please explain your point #1, as that is in no way obvious to me. The longer the Dragonite survives, the more DM will outperform in DPS.
1. latios and rayquazaare higher priority than Kyogre and Groudon since most people got the last two already. The majority of players would prefer to have good counters against latios and rayquaza above Kyogre and Groudon. New raids > past raids.
2. Lets run the numbers at lvl 35 and lvl 40:
DM i better against rayquaza:
Lvl 35:
no dodging: 2/6
dodging*: 1/6.
Lvl 40:
No dodging: 1/6
dodging*: 1/6
In total you are in 5/6 match ups better up with Outrage.
Vs groudon:
Lvl 35:
no dodging: 1/6
dodging*: 3/6
lvl 40: 2/6
No dodging:
dodging*: 5/6
In theory you can get a dragonite at lvl 40 to survive long enough, but that requires a no-established raiding style (hard to dodge due to larger raid lag) and alot of dust-investment.
Dragonite DM is imo better only if you use a non-establised battling style (that is impossible to really use) and prioritize the possibility of older raids above the new upcoming raids.
*Consideration of possible dodging has been taken.
I agree based on my Pokebattler results for equivalent Dragonites with DM vs O, ranked by pure DPS in a T5 raid boss situation, with no dodging. In certain scenarios DM does do significantly higher net DPS than O, but more often it seems to be the other way around (I was not methodical in comparing, so I am only reporting that I have observed cases where DM is better than O).
