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How to NOT catch a Mewtwo

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My first EX raid.
14 balls

2 pinap curve + great + curve
12 golden razz + great + curve

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=r3X24MaOcR4

Gold psychic medal and gold gym (if it helps)
(Catching part starts around 5.20)

Just want to know the probability of this occurrence.

This might be my only EX raid.

Asked by weavily7 years 9 months ago

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Oh man. Sorry to hear that. Your time will come. You carried that raid group too...

Well, it didn't have that good IVs

Yep, and there is a great chance that 7 other people pressed OK;) 2205 pretty low though; mine were 2213 and 2217 and in the 70s%

Good IV or not, that’s like 200 bag space upgrade if it’s his first Mewtwo

Very low probability. I figure it is around a 38% chance for each of the 12 golden razz great curves.

Could you have triggered a temporary soft ban somehow? Maybe Niantic's code that detects the use of third-party apps didn't like the recording app you were using?

One more question...your first EX raid, and you pinapped it?!? I realize it was only on the first two balls, but did you really need the extra three Mewtwo candies that badly?

Never hurts to at least go for a Pinap or two based on RNG. I’d did the same on my first up until I had 8 Premier balls left. Then GR the last few and caught it.

It never hurts until it does. I’m sure the OP would have taken back those throws.

Mewtwo has a higher base catch rate than TTar, I always pinap Ttar until I have 2 balls left. I'm 22/24 on Ttar. Two pinap on Mewtwo isn't a make or break decision.

For any other raid sure, they pop up frequently enough that you can play the long game - over time using pinaps nets you more candy despite the lower catch range compared to golden razz if you're good at throwing balls.

However because Mewtwo is extremely limited that it's more important to actually catch the Pokemon than to get 3 extra candies, because it's much easier to acquire rare candies than it is to get an opportunity for a Mewtwo raid.

OP here. Yeah, I should not pinap the first two..
Saw that mine was the second lowest CP in the raid group (another guy got 2200).

I stint think there's any way the video recording app triggered a soft ban. There are apps that for one recent update wouldn't allow you to load the game if you had certain "blacklisted" spoofing apps, but that was the extent of it. The update didn't affect actual gameplay. Plus, I heard they rolled that back after a couple days for unknown reasons.

Maybe you're right about the recording app, but he still might have been on a soft ban for some other reason. I would say the odds of that are better than the odds of him failing on all those throws purely due to RNG.

The screen recording was from iOS 11 and I don’t have any app that could trigger softban (IV or spoofing apps).

Just incredible! The probability for that to happen is 0.0042, or 4 times in 1000 tries. So sorry for you.

You even stop the recording at the end. I would just smash the phone on the ground. Really f*** up...

My first ex raid I did 2xpinap+7xGRazz=Mewtwo on the last ball.

Second Ex-raid I did 2xpinap=Mewtwo

First time I did GR on first throw caught it. Second time I did GR on first ball and caught it. Not excellent, just nice or great curve

That's just cruel

Should have tried a straight throw. I caught 3 without curves. Two of em were pinap'd too...

I don't believe in that nonsense. Random unluckiness doesn't mean that there is some kind of interior bias that the simulator adjust to by examining your throws.

If you just go with the highest probability all the time (GR + curve + great/excellent) you will be more generously awarded in the end.

Its my belief that to best RNG you need to out random it. I never throw straight throws with the exception of Zubat, gastly, and other far away mons. Even then I usually just go plus them. The most unusual thing I could have done was to straight throw a Mewtwo. And it worked. The game did not see that coming.

Why did you pinap and why did you not try for excellent?

This is a good streak, but could have easily been better.

Because great is much easier to hit instead of getting nothing from a missed excellent. The difference between great and excellent isn't enormous. 10 curved on Raikou will give 75% vs 82% catch probability for great and excellent respectively. If you hit all your excellent, that is. I'm not on that level.

I literally had a nightmare once where something similar happened to me. The reality however is even worse: I do not even get an invitation to an EX Raid.

I feel really sorry for you - sometimes this game is just cruel. The video was painful to watch - almost started to cry ;)

My 1st Mewtwo also run away from me, after that I practiced a lot, and by now I have caught the next 3 Mewtwos！Holiday seasons are coming, they will send out more!

Out of interest, what did you practise on? Is there another Mon which "behaves" like Mewtwo?

(I haven't had an EX pass but I'd like to be ready.)

It's about the same as the beasts. Not hard to hit at all. The only thing of note is that the attack animation is very short, but it takes about a second or so after the animation ends for the circle to return, so it is easy to throw too early.

Heard the closest approximation is Machamp

1. At the time, I did not watch youtube for Mewtwo raid to keep freshness, so I don’t know how Mewtwo attacks. So I watch YouTube to get familiar with its attacks
2. Before that, I did not seriously set the circle, not always wait for the attacks then throw. Now I set the circle and wait for attacks, try great. Most recently I am trying excellent
3. Smooth out my spinning the ball and throwing, sometime if you rush, you will drop the ball.
4. No other really like Mewtwo, but the timing roughly the same
My Entei catch rate at the same time improved a lot to 63/93!