Is lower defense actually desirable?
I've put these two in the simulation vs Arcanine:
Level 32 Vaporeon 15/10/14 (87%) Hydro Pump
Level 30 Vaporeon 15/4/15 (76%) Hydro Pump
The lower IV one came with 171.6s time to win, while the higher one need 173.5s to win. Power for the lower one is 196% while the higher one is 172%.
Both suffer 3 deaths to beat Arcanine.
Answers
Can you check the combat log with raid simulations? I haven't looked much deeper at Pokebattler for raids than using it mostly for general rankings of attackers.
I'm suspect like the others that the lower defense gained enough little extra energy through the fight to fire off its final Hydro Pump earlier and the higher defense fainted with more energy remaining.
It\s a lottery like Crapshoot that is completely dependent on the break points, hps, and energy fill, and left over energy.
1st) You have to be looking at a case where the Defense is different breakpoint wise for that level pokemon to even make a difference (pretty rare)
2nd) You have to be looking at a case where the Lower Defense charges a power move just in time before fainting. VS a case where the higher defense survives longer to get a couple extra quick moves in OR even charges its power move.
Generally speaking the odds of lower defense doing more is smaller than the odds of the higher defense doing more. It will happen but probability is probability