Probabilty of getting a TM as a raid bonus

EVeryone gets more fast then charge.

Don't know the numbers but ur alot more likely to get a fast TM. Have been getting more TM's from lvl2 & 3 raids in the past week, not sure if they've changed something or my luck has changed!!

Silph road did a study on this, the use of potions is not known but the reward system seems still be the same.

The reward system works accordingly to a bundles.

each raid tier has a standard bundle. A bundle gives a standard value for each item (we will come to that) .

Bundle:
Revive/gold berry/rare candy/fTM/cTM
tier 1: 2-1-1-1-1.
tier 2: 3-2-1-1-1.
tier 3: 4-3-2-1-1.
tier 4: 4-3-2-1-1.
tier 5: 5-3-3-1-1.

how many bundles depends equals number of premier balls (see picture), in the current use it seems lvl 5 raids are same as 4.

these bundle base values are multiplied with a base factor for each level that very for each tier.

Revive
31.0% +/-3.7%
29.3% +/-2.5%
31.4% +/-2%
30.5% +/-1.4%
29.1% +/-1%

Golden Razz
37.0% +/-3.9%
33.3% +/-2.6%
33.2% +/-2%
30.3% +/-1.4%
29.4% +/-1%

Rare Candy
29.9% +/-3.7%
35.3% +/-2.7%
31.0% +/-2%
30.5% +/-1.4%
29.2% +/-1%

Fast TM
1.6% +/-1%
1.2% +/-0.6%
2.8% +/-0.7%
5.7% +/-0.7%
6.0% +/-0.5%

Charged TM
0.9% +/-0.7%
0.9% +/-0.5%
1.6% +/-0.5%
3.0% +/-0.5%
6.5% +/-0.5%

TL:DR:
More or less only Tier 4 and 5 are TM-raids.
cTM is slightly more common in tier 5.
fTMs have the same drop rate in tier 4 and 5 but cTMs drop rate is lower in tier 4.
Rare candy: No real bonus going to higher tier raids: tier 3,4,5 gives around the same.

I've gotten 6 charged and 4 fast TMs in my last 3 days raiding. Two tier 5s on Sat, 4 tier 5s Sunday, a tier 3 Monday. No raiding today. 7 raids, 10 TMs. Luck comes and luck goes

So far, I have gotten 17 fast TMs and 20 charged TMs total from all the raids I've ever done. And of those, all I still have left are 6 of the fast.