Got my first TM vs Machamp today (win #20)
Since there is no real way to tell, other than RNG and personal experiences, how often TMs are dropped. I have to say, 19 wins were with the free raid passes. I still have not spent any money since the update, but i saw a machamp raid, and used coins to purchase (rule set, only use coins if raid level 3, and beatable solo with what I got) since i used the free one earlier on a Muk (#19). Win #20 was with a premium raid pass, and it gave me a Charged TM. Beating level 3s solo before, but not Machamp, and not with a premium pass, i can only assume that RNG favors either Machamp, or the "paid" raid (from personal experience). Obviously i think it's the premium pass.
Anywho, guess I'll TM one of my HB dragons, because they are all HB dragons. It's the only win/win charged TM move I can make. Everything else could go worse, or to not what I want. JHVS, wish me luck
Answers
I solo'd a Machamp about an hour ago against that same moveset. It was a pain to fight against. Guess who saved my behind at the very end when all my Pokemon died and there was only one Pokemon left? Dragonite with DT/Outrage! He is an absolute beast! And that Machamp had a nice amount of health left, too. I still can't believe I beat him.