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Best guess, how many 4* raids does your hunting area get per day?
In mine I'd say 2.5-3 for 30 gyms.
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I haven't seen one since the first week. But there are only 4 gyms in my area that I can drive to within a reasonable amount of time. But lately seems that there are nothing higher than lvl 2 raids at any of them. I've seen Eggy and magikarp at the same 2 gyms 3 days in a row now. I'm still waiting to see my 1st machamp as well.