which will happen first? I get a TM, or enough rare candy for another evolve?

if the mon spawns in raids now, evolving is a waste.

I have gotten 2 TMs in 41 raids...

I would a) save all rare candy b) save all TMs

Reason
* the gym scene will change, with the bugs and it just not making sense.
* since you are solo, and legendaries should be another thing coming, you may only have 1 or 2 chances to get one. Using a TM, or rare candies, on those is more valuable than using them on anything right now

I got a TM in my first raid... 25 raids later, no TMs.

I have gotten three tm's from three level 4 raids.

I believe I have only gotten one from five level 3 raids.

I haven't gotten a single one from about a dozen level 2 and 1 raids.

Level 4 raids are where it is at when it comes to tm's. Two of my level 4 raids have been done in a bigger city, but last night I managed to scrape together a group of 5 in my small hometown and we took down a Lapras. Started a facebook group to coordinate as well. I recommend it if you can't find other people to raid with. It's fun!

After 1 level 1 and 4 level 3 raids I finally got a charge TM.

No idea what to use it for, but there's no rush.

I must be lucky. I've gotten 2 quick tms and 5 charge tms over 13 raids. I even got two charged tms from the same L4 battle. So far, I used it on a heavy slam Machamp and a SW dragon. Saving the others for now.