Is shiny magikarp still out there?

The legend has it, that the great shiny karp still lurks in the shadows, how often, no one knows

I caught one 2 days ago!

Just caught one this week, I have probably seen a couple hundred since the water event before finding this one.

I live in a Magikarp-rich area and still haven't found one. They seem pretty rare to me.

My nice caught one yesterday, first shiny and became first Gyarados (Of course she got DT/O, not Bite / Crunch like I)

I've caught almost 1100 Karp. Still no shiny.
I read somewhere a while back that the chances are something like 1 / 4026.... Can't find that article, so I may be misquoting it.

I was very lucky to catch 3 shinykarp during the event , nowhere near water. Since then I have caught enough karp to bring two shiny gyarados to level 35.5 and have > 100 candies, but have not seen a single shiny.

I conclude they were not that rare during the event but are currently extremely rare.