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OMG I have defeated RNG!!!

First off the angel who told me to try a different time on my evolution I normally do around dinner 5-7pm this time I did 5:15 am I finally got C/DP on my Machamp on try 21!!!! People told me odds were 2.6% I have no idea if time change made any difference but my god I owe you a few beers either way. Good luck all may the RNG gods be in your favor.

Asked by jaboowinston57 years 11 months ago

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Haha congrats man. It's about time.

Thanks brother

Congrats!! Yes finally! If odds are 2.6% in getting a C/DP machamp then what are the odds of my 100% IV, wild caught machop evolving into a C/DP machamp?!? Which it did ?

Great pose/screenshot there...

The 2.6% reference was bc I had done 20 evolutions since gen 2 and had not gotten C/DP. The odds of yours was exactly 16%. Either way he is awesome and I would max him out to the fullest.

The odds will remain 1/6 regardless lol

Wild caught 100% IV chance – 1/16^3

Best moveset chance – 1/6

(1/16)^3*1/6=0.004%

Yeah, but that applies to catching a 100% with that moveset in the wild.

When you try to evolve a 100%, it has same chance of getting the best moveset as any other IV evolve.

You're welcome :)
https://pokemongo.gamepress.gg/q-a/math-wizards-help

Huge congrats on your C/DP.

I'm not sure if it's clear to you or not that the 2.6% was the probability associated with evolving 20 Machamps without at least 1 receiving the C/DP moveset.

You can think of it as the probability of your journey to a C/DP Machamp being what it turned out to be. (Your particular journey had a 2.6% chance of occurring before you started).

It is a probability associated with "rolling the dice" a set number of times (in your case 21 times). The probability of rolling an actual dice and getting a 6, is 1/6 or 16.7%. Which happens to be the same probability of evolving a C/DP Machamp (because there are 6 possible moveset outcomes). With any single roll/evolve, you will always have a 16.7% chance of rolling the 6 or evolving the C/DP Machamp. That probability never changes. What does change is the probability that you will get at least one 6 if you roll the dice a number of times. In your case that number was 20 times (21 now) and the chance of rolling a 6 in 20 rolls is 97.4%, and 2.6% of not rolling a 6 in those 20 rolls (which was what happened to you).

Feel free to ignore this^ hehe.