10k eggs - this can't be coincidence?
I know it is believed that the species in the egg is determined when it is received, but I'm not so sure.
My first two 10k eggs picked up since the event hatched a dratini (yeah!) and a pine cone (pineco that is... sigh). But I got two more so I had hopes for something better.
Yesterday as I was < 1 km from hatching the first one I caught a wild pineco at a lured pokestop; rare, but I had caught about 2 before. Then the egg hatched.... a pineco! Coincidence? Probably.
Today I walked at a park at a lake and caught a mantine with < 1 km left on my 10k egg. Surely, it couldn't be.... surely, it was - a mantine!
And this is not the first this had happened - caught my first misdreavus at Costco, next egg hatched one; same thing had happened with pine cone and mantine before.
Does anyone really know how egg species is determined (other than Niantic)? This can't be coincidence?
What are your thoughts/experiences?
Thanks!
*** Update 4/27/17 ***
I just hatched my final 10k egg. As I started the evolution, I thought, "Wouldn't it be nice it was a snorlax?" Highly unlikely since I hadn't hatched one since November!
And guess what? It was a snorlax! So happy, don't even care that he has L/EQ, LOL.
Conclusion: Yes, I guess it's all RNG ;)
Answers
I totally agree with your first statement, RNG can appear to have a pattern when you look it this way.
But for the second part, I don't believe the biome has any relationship with egg hatches, or if it has, it is not big enough to proof anything, and let me explain, I am not extremely hardcore player, but I play everyday, I am 200k away from lvl 37 with 1k eggs hatched. On 5k eggs and some 2k yes it seems to be a pattern on my biome, or sort of it, as a Grass-Water biome I keep hatching Paras, Goldeen, Tentacool, Psyduck and Slowpoke between others.
But on almost all 2k and 10k the pattern breaks for me, I never see a rock/ground mon, I catch a geodude each week or two, but still hatch them on almost every 2k egg, I have get 10 geodude in a row previous to this egg event.
Also only have seen a wild pineco since gen2 release and only a Larvitar and a single Mareep too, but it seems I keep hatching those from eggs again and again, at this point I have hatched from my last 12 10km eggs, 6 Larvitar, 4 Mareep, 2 Pineco. So for me I can't say that biome has relationship with what I am getting for eggs. I have Dratini around the river and never hatched a 10k Dratini in the last 2 months for example, same for Mantine, I see lots of them, yet I don't hatch them at all (keeping my fingers crossed).
Basically, you could even say that my second statement contradicts my first...but I have seen a lot of anecdotal evidence on here and other social media platforms that support that biome has at least a small effect on hatches.
If I give examples then I will just look like I am finding patterns in RNG, and adding a little confirmation bias of my own.
But I will say I wish I would stop hatching Chansey, because I just keep getting these apparently super rare hatches, and hope I get a few more dratini hatches which are supposed to be common.
I think , and repeat think because as you perfectly stated you can't be sure of anything inside the RNG, that it could be more of a pokestop related than a biome related. In my town there are not that many of stops, maybe that is the reason why I normally hatch mon from a "small" pool sample, because I get my 10k normally from the same 10 stops or so, that could perfectly explain why I keep hatching Geodude, Larvitar, Ryhorn and Pineco even when I don't ever see them in the wild.
Maybe you get your Chansey eggs from a small area of stops? Just pure speculation but based on my experience it could maybe be closer to a "pokestop biome" than a "local biome".
Anyway just Niantic will know it at the end, unless some speaks too loud and they fire him/her and change the pattern haha xD
I think there might be spown following the egg!
It happened to me too, I remember that was at least 3 in a row, caught one, then the same egg hatch, caught another mon, then the same another mon hatch, then repeated 3 times!
My theory is buddy can trigger egg, egg can trigger spown.
I have another theory, when you throw 10 left spin balls that won't work, change to right spin ball will work immediately. They seemed to have coded mons with resisting certain spin directions...
"Egg can trigger spawn" - if we think this theory through, it would mean Pokemon Go constantly tracks every single user's incubator(s) and location so as to present such individual spawns. While it would certainly be possible to program such a feature, it would be complicated and increase server load. Why would a garage company like Niantic ever do such a thing?
Yes, this has happens so many times that I am superstious of any 10k mon who appears prior to 10km egg hatch. I avoided catching a pineco yesterday prior to egg hatch just for this reason. Also happened prior to hatching snorlax recently and i definitely don't mind getting lax so I caught it. This is becoming a bit like baseball superstion for me. Probably coincidence but there might be something to it and better to be safe than sorry...wish chancy would appear prior to hatching blissy but has never happened :)
The problem with this theory is that people have hatched legacy movesets from eggs meaning that the mon was already in there prior to a moveset change or a catch mon bias...if the Pokemon from a hatch is randomly generated at hatch time...
I used to believe in a Pokestop biome relationship (hatched 3 Lapras early on), but now just get eggs from wherever (maybe since Larvitar could be in my biome anyways).
Also, looking at it statistically with the millions of players, I think the Lapras hatch rates was set so a few people would ALWAYS have hatched say 6 Lapras out of 10 eggs or whatever and would want to tout confirmation bias so I think ultimately now, IMO, it's probably just all RNG for me.
From what I understand, egg contents are determined when you get the egg. This is why the pokemon in pre-event eggs aren't affected by an ongoing event, and you can still hatch event pokemon after the event is over if you got them during the event. Therefore, pokemon you catch before hatching an egg wouldn't affect the outcome of the hatch. There could be some kind of correlation where both become more common in your area for a bit, not sure on this one.
I believe there are some occasional patterns thrown in with re: to eggs that are not large enough to be measured. This is what makes the game interesting and not just a random numbers game...
For example, I believe that if you are incubating an egg, you are less likely to get that egg while spinning. If that stop gives out nidoran 9 out of 10, and you are incubating a nidoran the stop will give you something else, hopefully of the 10k variety.
I realize that most will think this is complete rubbish but I'm sure others have their own quirks that work for them such as timing the pokestop spin so it is in synch with the first 2 rotations, etc...
I always thought the pokestop had nothing to do with egg distribution, that it was enirely based on trainer stats (e.g, level), and RNG.
Perhaps: This time give trainer the same approppriate pokemon from that egg group that they last hatched or caught (e.g., pineco). Next time give something rare (snorlax). And so on?
I admit I am always looking for the pattern, probably part of being human. My superstition follow that you never catch a 10k mom prior to hatching a 10k egg unless you want your chances of hatching this particular mon to increase. For me this means avoid catching any pineco, sudoowoodo, etc. but make sure to make an attempt at catching snorlax, etc. i kind of imagine an evee like evolution process going on in the egg, larvitar or pineco, etc.
