What is the probability that a given Pokemon (caught, not hatched) is a wonder? I calculated it as 4% and an old post on Silph Road seems to confirm this, but the recent change may have affected the probability.
Evolved both my wonder Poliwags, got RS/HP and RS/HP, quickly acquired another 250 Poliwag candy but yet to find another wonder Poliwag (to seek RS/DP).
SGPokeMap refuses to show common trash, regardless of IV, and I never cared about IVs when using it to farm Dratinis and Machops since my wonders are hatched.
I calculated it as 4% and an old post on Silph Road seems to confirm this, but the recent change may have affected the probability. [...] SGPokeMap refuses to show [...]
The patch affected the probability a lot. Until now, cheaters simply looked on a map or twitter and got their wonders with 100% probability, now they have to pray to the rng-gods too - just like legit players.
4% for wild pkm and 67% for hatches seems to be the propability to get a wonder.
Niantic should hit them harder.
The obvious work-around: Make spawns completely random.
To hit the cheaters, statistics could help. If the seen-rate of the big 4 (snorlax, dragonite, blissey, tyrannitar) in comparison to other pokemon is so high, that the propability for this to have happend randomly is lower than 1 in a million, they could examine that players movement profile, and if this looks like somebody who directly moves from one rare catch to the next, confiscate some of this trainers rare pokemon.
There are other ways Niantic can battle this.
one way is to make spawn durations a random value between 15 and 60 minutes, and for super rare pokemon to make the duration range maybe 15 to 20 or something. This way the scanners can't predict when it ends and fewer cheaters will hop in the car to go catch that Unown or wild Tyranitar. The problem now is that scanners know exactly when a pokemon despawns so cheaters can sit in front of their computer and scan a region 30 minutes (by car) in all directions waiting for that super rare spawn. I have more respect for those who only scan walking areas it's the ones (and they're all over YouTube) that just drive from one amazing spawn found on a scanner to the next. They'll still be able to get the ones close by, but this would be another step in the right direction. If they realize there's a chance they will miss it fewer will put in the effort and gas money.
My understanding is that "wonder" is attributed to any mon with a total IV >80% of the 45 possible points. The distribution is differs for wild vs. hatched.
If you add up the % from the distribution curve it comes to 4.02% chance of catching a wild "wonder"
Slightly more than one of every 25 wild mon caught.
