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Is this even possible?

Asked by OldDirtyApu8 years 1 month ago

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Ask them to show the location of where they caught it. If it isn't the same location, they obviously spoofed and sniped every single 100IV Magikarp until they found a shiny.

Yeah but even if they did wouldn't it nearly be impossible? I've caught way over 100 "floppy phish" with no shiny. Am I just unlucky?

No one knows the exact probability of finding a shiny Magikarp, but it seems to be more common than it was in the original games. I've managed to find one after about 60

yeah but what are the odds its 100% IV? combine that with the fact they got one of the best 2 movesets just seems unreal.

Maybe the odds are higher if it's 100?

Assuming they spoofed, every single one of the Magikarp they caught would've been 100 IV so that doesn't factor into the probability. Since they're only going to evolve the one that is Shiny, the odds would still be only 1 in 6 to get that exact moveset. It's only rare if they did it legitimately.

i don't think that's true. if so all spoofers would have it right?

If every single spoofer continued to catch every single 100 IV Magikarp, they will eventually have a 1 in 6 chance of evolving a Shiny 100IV DT/HP Gyarados.

After thousands of Magikarp. Soooo unlikely but likely at the same time. It is what it is I guess.

It's definitely not thousands. I've caught 3 out of roughly 250 - 300 Magikarps. Many others have also had no trouble finding shiny Magikarp. I would say it's maybe 2-3 times as rare as Ditto.

I suppose that with so many Magikarps spawning you can easily gather a shitload of them by spoofing. As you said, you've caught over 100 and I've caught loads as well. Imagine how many a really dedicated spoofer can catch.
And sooner or later he/she/the asshole will get a 100IV one. And they probably got loads of candy and dust as well, so even a low CP one will do.

Here we are, catching every orange, floppy bastard we see and can't get a single shiny one :(

Yes....barely. But yes.
Fwiw "shinys" aren't shiny for the next guy. So spoofing to them doesn't work.

right so even if you snipe perfect ones you'd still have to be crazy lucky

You would have to snipe thousands then still get lucky.

Assuming the chance of finding a shiny Pokemon is the same as in the main series games (1/4096), and the chance of finding a perfect IV Pokemon also being 1/4096, the chance of getting that 100% IV Red Gyarados is 1/4096•4096 which is 1/16 777 216. One in 16 milloin! That's like winning the lottery! Although it is likely that the chance of finding a shiny is higher than in the main series games, it would still be unbelievably rare to find a perfect IV shiny. This leads me to believe that it was not aqcuired by spoofing and sniping 100 IV Magikarps as finding a shiny one among those would be as hard for the spoofer as it is for us legit players to find normal 100 IV pokemon (Assuming the chances for shinies and 100 IVs are same at 1/4096)

^ This...

And being that over the course of the event a LOT more than 17mill (even more than 6x that number, to account for moveset probability) Karp have been caught, then the odds are that there are quite a few around.

Looking at the candy and dust count, I am going to say it is most likely a legit player that got very lucky.
It has to happen for someone...

Can wild Gyarados be shiny? Or is it just Magikarp?

I suppose it would be easier to just spoof every high IV Gyarados with the right moveset and just hope one is shiny than to try for every high IV Magikarp and hope one is both shiny and evolves to the right moveset.

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