Drop rate for evolution items?
Do we have any evidence, anecdotal or otherwise, about evolution items, other than the stated "very low" drop rate? I have spun 1163 pokestops since Gen 2 dropped (but who's counting ; ), and I have gotten exactly one item, a Dragon Scale, on the first stop of my 7 day streak. I had read reports of an increased likelihood on later stops during the seventh day, with people getting 2 or 3 more items, so I hit over 400 that day. I tried walking a loop of the same 10 stops, 10 times in a row, for 100 stops, got nada. Then I drove to 100 distinct different stops in a row, still nothing.
I understand it's RNG, but I'm starting to wonder if I should even bother and instead just wait until my 7 day streak rolls around again. I guess tomorrow will be the first day possible for anyone to complete a second 7 day streak, and I would like to know if the first stop on day 7 works the second time around? Any other tips, superstitious or not ?
Answers
People do not understand this. They fail to understand its the same concept as 10k eggs. While someone like myself gets about 9 a week on average someone else can say they only get 2 a month. It's all RNG and the more you spin the better your chance. Sometimes I sit on a spot where I am in range of 7 pokestops and constantly spin them all in unison. The city is great for this type of farming when items are RNG and rare.
Finding Dory voice: Just keep spinning, just keep spinning...
First time I have asked, if you are referring to me specifically. I was just curious what others were experiencing. My personal results thus far suggest a rate less than 1/1163, or 0.085%. I go to parks and places in the city where lots of other people are spinning the same stops. I'm wondering if there are a limited number of items dropped per stop / per day, would there be a better chance spinning a few remote, less frequented stops repeatedly, like guarding your one slot machine in the corner until it finally pays off?
I think this hasn't been responded properly yet.
So far my personal results debunk or confirm the most common theories and speculation:
-They only drop in seven day streaks: false, they can drop in any spin, only that streak spins have higher probabilities to drop one due to incrased item drop.
-You can't have more than three in a 24hr lapse: false, there is no limit to the number of evo items you can get per day.
Ok. For the rest the numbers show some interesting results. I've spun 4300 pokestops so far and I have had 14 evolution item drops so far. (8 king's rock, 3 metal coat, 2 sun stones, 1 dragon scale, 0 upgrade), which suggests you get (on average) one every few hundred spins. It also seems that, among all the evolution items, king's rock is the most common and upgrade is the rarest. However this doesn't mean you couldn't get all five in one single spin, only that in terms of probability, it's percentage would be extremely low.
i have received a sun stone on a regular spin and an upgrade today on the 7-days streak spin.
I personally think that there might be an inverse proportionality between the number of rare items and the number of spins made "per day". If you are are spinning like a crazy, you already are addicted to the game. Nianticwill not get more investing on you.
Instead, if you are spinning just a few pokestops per day, niantic might want to encourage you to play more giving you more bonus items...at that point you will need candies for the evolutions and you will start hunting more...and maybe spending...
I'm saying this because otherwise there is no explanation to people like you spinning a lot with no evolution items, and people like me spinning 5 or 6 stops a day and ending up with 2 evolution items
Every weekday afternoon/evening at 4 PM, I walk my dogs using the route that bypasses my nearest Pokestop (even though having the leashes of two dogs that combined outweigh me in one hand moderately handicaps my pokeball throwing as I am not a thumb thrower). That's at least five spins a week.
There are a few days here and there where I am able to spin multiple times/stops in one outing such as yesterday when my stepdad and I took my niece to the park. I have yet to meet a park without pokestop and my niece played long enough that day to give me at least five spins maybe ten.
FYI: One tidbit I've picked up from my multiple spin experience is that you're awarded fewer and fewer items each time you spin the same stop and the less frequently you'll receive a greatball or greater.
In spite of it all, I've gotten one evolution item so far: a sunstone and I don't remember when that was or even that I had it at all until I checked my bag just now.
I'd put money on the one streak I managed to complete. I don't always get out on the weekends.
