How expensive is a 82 percent iv or above Tier 1 defender with ideal attacks?
By this I mean, in order to be 95 percent confident with a margin of error of 5 percent that you will hatch both a perfect defensive moveset snorlax (ZH and BS) and perfect defensive moveset lapras (IS and (both, not 2 of one, or 2 of the other, one each) with above 82 percent iv, how much money do you have to spend on pokecoins to buy enough incubators that you can safely know you will hatch both of these mons? (in your calculation, please note that different pokemon have different hatch rates!)
The reason I'm asking this is because I just had the best hour of pokemon go in my life. I just caught a level 16 86 percent iv lapras with ice shard and dragon pulse. I caught this lapras 30 minutes within catching a 2400k attacking lapras with frost breath and blizzard (the attacking lapras I've spent hundreds upon hundreds of hours looking for!), a 98 percent iv bulbasaur that i evolved into a venusaur and got perfect moveset and catching a 98 percent iv charmander (charmander is only 11cp sadly :().
Lapras has been my buddy for a while now and I have accumulated over 60 Lapras candies. When I have enough candies, should I power up my 86iv lapras all the way (i am level 34)? I think Lapras' greatest weakness is its low cp compared to Vaporeon, Snorlax and Dragonite and even crap defenders like Gyarados and Rhydon. The Lapras I caught is not only above 82 percent iv, but a good amount above that 82 percent cutoff sitting at 86 percent. Why is Ice Shard and Dragon Pulse rated a B moveset while ZH Earthquake Snorlax is a C moveset? Is Dragon Pulse in any situation better than Ice Beam or Blizzard on defense?
So aside from my statistics question on the cost of a perfect Snorlax and Lapras, what should I do? Power up my Dragon Pulse Lapras when I have enough candies? Wait indefinitely till I get that 86 percent iv or better lapras with better attacks? I do also have a 73 percent iv Lapras with Ice Shard and Blizzard that I caught 3 months ago at 2150ish cp, should I power him up instead? Thanks guys!
Answers
- We don't know the hatch rate of Lapras/Snorlax yet, but suppose it's H;
- Since the egg mon has uniformly distributed IVs (that we know), the probability of the getting a 82%+ egg mon is known, let's denote it as Q;
- We don't know the distribution of egg mon move set, but let's suppose it's uniform distribution again.
From 1,2 and 3, we have the probability of hatching a 82iv+ Lapras with F/B is p = H*Q/6.
Let X be the number of trials (hatches) before you success for the first time (i.e., the event with probability p happens), then we have:
E[X] = 1/p
However, out of E[X] eggs, some of them are 2k, some of them are 5k, and others are 10k. You need to know the proportion of each, then you can calculate the weighted expected distance walked before hatching the desire Lapras. That is, D = E[X] * (2w2 + 5w5 + 10*w10).
And finally, each incubator essentially saves you 15-30km of your walking distance, depending on your strategy of using. Divide D by 20, for best estimate (two 5k and one 10k for each incubator), the result will be the expected number of incubators required.
The challenging part is to estimate H (Hatch rate of Lapras), as well as to know the proportions of 2k, 5k and 10k. A large data set may be required.
thanks! yea this is the answer i was looking for!
we have egg hatching info here: https://netherfable.com/pgo-egg-hatch-distribution/
if we remove the eevee and regional exclusives from the data we can probably get an approximate answer here. it seems like the chance of getting a snorlax is around 5 percent and 4percent for a lapras out of a 10k egg..and i think i read somewhere its 67 percent chance to get a wonder..and a 1 in 6 chance for snorlax or 1 in 3 chance for lapras to get an ideal defensive moveset..and a 27ish percent chance to get a 10km egg (im just eyeballing these numbers).
Ok, now we can do some calculations
Assumptions:
Cost to hatch one egg: 0,35$ with discount for big poke-coin-package
Chance to get one 10km-egg: 0,05
Chance to get Lapras or Snorlax: 0,05+0,05 = 0,1
Chance to get 82%+IV-Pkm: 0,667
Chance to get perfect moveset: 0,167
So the expectation for the cost to hatch an adequate pkm is
0,35$/0,05/0,1/0,667/0,167=630$.
Investing 630$ in incubators gives you expectation value of one perfect defending pkm. I do not know the correct way to calculate by heart, so i estimate the investment to be 95% sure to get one as 3 to 5 times higher, so 2-3k$
Holy crap that's a lot of cash. I just want a good defending Snorlax and Lapras (and attacking Snorlax), along with an Aerodactyl to be happy with my Gen 1 Pokemon, but that's a lot of money that I can't afford. I guess I'll keep walking Pokebuddies then power up my non-ideal versions of Snorlax and Lapras when I get enough candies as that's a crazy amount of money. When trading comes out it will be interesting if Pokemon begin getting monetary values because people start trading awesome Pokemon for Pidgeys with some money attached.
Hatch rate is difficult. As the Silphroad study indicate the hatch is most probably affected by the pokestop giving the egg.
I have tested this myself. I have nearby a Pokestop that is surrounded by water on all sides: Every time possible I try to get an egg drop from it. So far I have gotten an amazing amount of mostly Magicarps, Goldeens, Pollywags, Psyducks, Shellder, Staryu, etc. However the few 10km I have obtained have given me 2/3 of the Lapras hatches I have in total (not only Lapras but the amount of them and Dratinis are certainly increased). So I believe you certainly can increase your chance of Lapras hatch by choosing a good pokestop. But it takes a lot of patience
The odds on hatching a perfect moveset Lapras and perfect moveset Snorlax with IVs you want are extremely small. Both have only a 1 in 6 chance of being the perfect moveset. The chances of hatching one are pretty small - I'm level 33 and have hatched 2 Snorlax and 2 Lapras out of a lot of eggs (1002). Calculating the probability of hatching any specific Pokemon is difficult - some stops seem to release more 10k eggs than others, and the biome you collect the egg in seems to have some influence on what you hatch. I suspect someone who lives in an area where wild Snorlax and Lapras occasionally hatch (never seen in my area) will have slightly greater odds.
Assuming, you have a perfect defender and we just regard one year of playing time.
Assuming, your perfect defender can defend one gym for one year, giving you
360 * 500 Dust = 180000 Dust +
360 * 10 Coins = 36 Poke-$
So - realistically - a Defending Pokemon can never be worth more than 100$ - and i am pretty sure, with just 100$ for incubators (roughly 300 Hatches) you will not have your perfect defender being
95 percent confident with a margin of error of 5 percent
So, it is not real value - however you judge it, it is more the "want have" what could determine the price of a pokemon, when it (hopfully never) comes to trading.
