Ursaluna and its Place in the Meta

UPDATE

 Niantic has dropped Ursaluna's moveset, and it's objectively bad due to a lack of good Fast Moves. Take most of what we have below less as fact, and more as a "what if?" scenario.

Original Article

Teddiursa Community Day is on Saturday November 12th from 2-5pm local time. Teddiursa Community Day will feature the debut of both its Hisuian Evolution, Ursaluna, and the Ground-type Charge Move High Horsepower. To add, this Community Day will feature the coveted 3x Stardust Bonus for catching Pokemon. The article below highlights the power and potential of High Horsepower Ursaluna in both the Raid and PvP metas. As it stands, Ursaluna is looking like a winner.

Companion Video

First and foremost, we currently do not have a moveset datamine on any Hisuian Pokemon that aren’t already in Pokemon GO. However, due to the movepool limitations of Pokemon Legends: Arceus, Ursaluna’s movepool is fairly predictable. 

Looking at Ursaring’s movepool and comparing it to Ursaluna’s PLA options, Ursaluna is all but guaranteed to receive Shadow Claw as a Fast Move. If Ursaluna doesn’t get Shadow Claw, its only other options are Tackle and Rock Smash. As for Charge Moves, we can assume Hyper Beam/Giga Impact and Play Rough are in. Beyond that, we have Rock Slide, Stone Edge, and all three Elemental Punches (Fire Punch, Ice Punch, and Thunder Punch) to hope for, along with Bulldoze, Earth Power, Aerial Ace, Swift, and Rest to dread.

It’s worth mentioning that you can only evolve Ursaring into Ursaluna during a “full moon.” The official Community Day announcement states that this period will last from Saturday November 12th until Sunday November 13th, 6am local time. It is currently unclear if future “full moons” will correlate with the standard meteorological event we experience in real life, or if Pokemon GO’s “full moon” will function differently. We shall find out in due time.

At the moment, all we know about High Horsepower is that it will have 100 base power for PvP and 110 base power for Raids. Given that High Horsepower has no secondary effects, in PvP it can be expected to have roughly 55 energy, resting between Drill Run’s 80/45 and Earthquake’s 120/65. As for Raids, 110 base power gives hope that High Horsepower could be a 50 energy charge move that roughly parallels Outrage. Of course, more will be known once we get the datamine. Moreso 1 hour after reddit and twitter reacts to the datamine and Pokemon GO changes the stats again.

Assuming High Horsepower is at least as good as Outrage is in Raids, Shadow Ursaluna could be an optimal Raid Attacker against the aforementioned Ghost and Ground weak Raid Bosses. Non-Shadow Ursaluna could be expected to be roughly as good as Garchomp. While the Fast Move situation makes Ursaluna an awkward Raid investment, its cross-utility in the Master League and ease of XL can make up for it. Overall, Ursaluna isn’t a #1 Raid Attacker, but is far from useless (pending the full datamine on High Horsepower). 

Rock Smash is another Fast Move option for Ursaluna. If Ursaluna receives Rock Smash and High Horsepower is as good as Outrage, it would still lag behind most optimal Fighting and Ground-type Raid Attackers. If you don’t already have a full Ground-type raid squad, Ursaluna wouldn’t be the worst addition to your team, but generally wouldn’t be recommended.

Across all Leagues, Ursaluna’s true performance hinges on what Charge Moves it gets beyond the assumed 100/55 High Horsepower. Rock Slide and the Elemental Punches (Fire Punch, Ice Punch, and Thunder Punch) cost 45 and 40 energy respectively. Any of these 4 attacks could give Ursaluna an effective bait and closing move to pair with High Horsepower, which would significantly boost Ursaluna’s consistency. Without them, we’re most likely looking at Hyper Beam/Giga Impact or Play Rough as Ursaluna’s 2nd attack. In that case, a Purified Ursaluna with Return would end up being superior, as Return has similar damage per energy as Hyper Beam/Giga Impact with a lower energy cost. 

Great League 

In the Great League, Ursaluna’s main competition is with Galarian Stunfisk and Diggersby. Compared to G!Fisk, Ursaluna sports better Ghost-type matchups but worse Flying-type ones (with or without Rock Slide or Ice Punch). Both Diggersby and G!Fisk have the bulk to better withstand pure neutral matchups (like Umbreon) and Charmers, but lack the speed Ursaluna has to their Ground-type attacks and the chunking capability Shadow Claw brings. If Ursaluna gets a solid bait move, it could be a more dynamic but fragile alternative to the two. Without a bait move, Ursaluna could still see play, but could easily fumble in late game scenarios. 

Ultra League

In the Ultra League, Ursaluna’s comparison to Galarian Stunfisk is similar to Great League’s, but with 1 key player added to the mix: Shadow Force Giratina Altered Forme. While we don’t know precisely how powerful Shadow Force will be on Giratina at this time, it is expected to be very powerful. Dark-types like Scrafty and Obstagoon can manage Shadow Claw variants of Giratina well, but will fall victim to Dragon Breath. Bait move or not, Ursaluna can handle both Fast Moves on Giratina. What Ursaluna is able to do well beyond this will come down to its other Charge Moves. Without a bait move, Ursluna’s middling bulk, speed, and power will often cause it to underperform when not hard countering Giratina.

Master League

In the Master League, Ursaluna makes Lugia, Mewtwo, Giratina, and Togekiss wish Game Freak left Shadow Claw out of Pokemon Legends: Arceus. With or without bait moves, thanks to Shadow Claw, Ursaluna will likely have a strong presence in the Master League meta. It’s hard to say if Ursaluna will “replace” any of the current meta Ground-types in Master League though, as all of them have their own niche advantages. That said, Lugia, Mewtwo, and Giratina are some big names to be strong against as a Ground-type Pokemon.

In the Great League and the Ultra League, it isn’t certain which variation of Ursaluna will perform better. This uncertainty is only amplified by not knowing what Ursaluna’s full moveset will be. Either way, you’re going to want both variations evolved with High Horsepower for both Leagues. Hopefully Pokemon GO will give us a Rocket Takeover event before November 12th so players can remove Frustration from their Shadow Teddiursa and Ursaring. 

As for the Master League, it currently appears that non-Shadow Ursaluna will be the preference, due to Charge Move tolerance. This isn’t to suggest that Shadow Ursaluna won’t have its advantages, it just likely won’t be the bread and butter recommendation. 

Finally, a meta Community Day Pokemon. Or is it? As it stands, it is very likely that Ursaluna will get Shadow Claw. Similarly, it is likely that High Horsepower will follow Drill Run and Earthquake’s balance in PvP and be similar to Outrage in Raids. What we do know is if High Horsepower doesn’t meet these reasonable minimum expectations, it’ll be bad. If it’s better, then it’ll be better! Hopefully all will be revealed soon.