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Wonder probability with weather boost

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Without a weather boost, the probability that a wild catch is a wonder is about 4%.

What is the probability that a weather-boosted wild catch is a wonder?

Asked by hkn7 years 4 months ago

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I'ts the same. Only difference during weather boost is it eliminates 0-3 IV mons.

Do you imply there are less spawns?

All Niantic does is push the IV of the spawns that would have been 1 to 4 but doesn't effect the spawns already above 4 so it doesn't get eliminated.

It depends on how exactly they push it, do you know whether they just increase 0-3 ivs to 4, than yes, but it's also possible to reroll bad ivs, or boost every iv by 4.

They reroll the lvl and iv.

So ivs are evenly distributed between 4-15, right? And level between 5-35 or 0-35?
Was it studied somewhere?

I haven't seen a study of the distribution, but there are reports of ppl who caught the same Mon at different weather with 2 different accounts. It doesn't seems like there is a simple formula between the two like adding 4 to the iv or clipping ivs under 4. In some of these reports the iv of the weather boosted Mon was worse.

Just as I thought, that means probability of a wonder has increased.

I don't know where this 4-15 range is coming from. I've been watching my weather buffed catches, and not a one of them has a 4 IV. Several 5, but no 4. Maybe I've been really lucky. Should we do a count of the distribution for weather buffed mon? That would enable us to calculate the probability of getting any given thing (perfect, over 90%, wonder, whatever).

Stays the same but you could get a wonder at lvl 35 now tho.

According to Niantic, for wild spawns the probability of each IV number occurring anywhere from 0 to 15 is uniformly distributed.

Based on that, a rough estimate would be:
Without weather: 4096 IV combinations (= 16^3)
With weather: 1728 IV combinations (= 12^3)
~4% X (4098 / 1728) = ~9.5% Amazing/Wonder

This looks correct according to how probability works. Anyone want to explain downvotes?

Just 3 trolls who downvoted comments above as well.

Because maths is hard...and when you don't understand or don't know any better then just down vote without comment.

That is what I get too:

Non-weather (165 wonders of 4096 combinations) = 4.0283203125%
Weather (165 wonders of 1728 combinations) = 9.54861111111111%

> What is the probability that a weather-boosted wild catch is a wonder?

The same or worse... I may have gotten one or two "wonders", but most high level ones are "not likely..." or "above average".

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