Which dratini to evolve?
First one:
A11, D15, HP15 (91%)--max CP 3202 (for my level)
Second:
A14, D15, HP11 (89%)--max CP 3204
I'm leaning towards the second as it theoretically would make for a better attacker and the 2 extra CP points might play a role when using it as a "defender", as gyms are now stacked with many high CPs which are all bunched together.
Obviously, whichever one has the better moveset is most important, but I only have candy enough to evolve one.
Answers
I don't know that the second one necessarily makes for a better attacker. It has a higher attack stat, but will be able to take less damage (theoretically, although you are splitting hairs here with the miniscule stat differences). Alakazam has a higher attack stat than Dragonite, but that doesn't make him a better attacker.
On the contrary, I'd go with the first one, because the higher IV will make more of a difference when added to the lower HP base stat.
Evolve the first one, HP (IV) has the most influence in ANY dragonite's performance, as dragonite's base ATK and DEF are already pretty high, so those IV's will contribute less to the overall stat of the pokemon.
Dragonite's base stats are (A/D/S): 263/201/182
So 3 more ATK in the IV would add only about 1% to the overall ATK, where 4 STA would add 2% to the overall HP of the dragonite.
And yes, you are splitting hairs here, either one is fine, but the first one will be a tiny bit better.