Most numbers so far indicate that the odds are somewhere between 1/300 and 1/500.
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What's your source/data?
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there are some threads on Silph Road Reddit page, and I am also supplementing that with my own real-world experience and other friends that play. I think one thing we can say for certain, though, is that the odds aren't nearly as steep as the main series.
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About 1/100 - 1/200 based on readings from people
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I've personally caught one shiny out of about 150 Magikarps since the shinies were introduced. Obviously, that's just one data point, but perhaps others will post their experience.
And since you've given me a perfect opportunity to brag...
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she's pretty ... nice moveset too
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Nice move set
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Im at 233 caught and no shiny. Still 90 min to go, but looks grim.
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I caught three in the first two days, but not one since.
On Friday night when my son and I were playing,
my son and I each poked on different magikarp, each was shiny. NOT the same karp, but two different ones that were flopping around side by side. Go Figure!
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I caught some 360 karps since the start of the event, no shiny :(
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I played excessively in the last seven days, and finally today, after about 1000 candy worth of carps, I got a 37cp shiny, with about a 70% IV. They certainly aren't common.
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Caught around 200...over 1,000 candies for event but used some Pinap berries...no shiny here...sure it will come eventually but would have been nice during event
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It's a bit early to make estimations. We don't even know if the spawn rate of shiny magikarp was increased for the water event.
My personal experience: caught more than 300 and no shiny. And only a couple of them with high IVs
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~ 200 magi karps to get my shiny (64%) evolved bite outrage so will only be good as a trophy.
