What's the likelihood of getting a TM after beating a raid boss

I got one after defeating Muk. They happen. It was my fourth raid.

Currently at the Silph Road they are running a poll all about raid bosses and rewards; highly recommend checking it out for anyone interested in such questions.

Done 3 raids and have received 0 TMs. The raids where also all level 2 raids I solo'd.

I got 2(one of each) in my first raid, a jolteon. there where 3 of us, the other guy got 1 and the third guy none. i've done 4 so far, all solo lvl 1 didn't got another

I've done 9, still no TM. I'm fine with them being rare though.

I read someplace that level 4 raid is average of 1. I have received 2 max and also 0.

Also level 3 is 50% chance of a TM.

Not sure about the others

I got a fast TM after a level 1 raid (Magikarp, trashed it with a Meganium, never even got my charge attack off, KO was too fast.) Fast TM, 2 rare candy, 2 golden raspberries, 3000 XP, and 11 white balls, 10 of which weren't needed. Also won a Quilava, no TM, similar loot otherwise.

I have done 25 raids...had a great weekend with my son (yes I spent money, don't judge)

I have received 10 TMs so far. My son had 9, but he did a few less raids.

Small sample size, but I've successfully beaten:
• Three Level 2 raids; got one TM
• One Level 3 raid; no TMs
• Two Level 4 raids; two TMs (from the same raid)