Was lucky Pokémon chance nerfed?

It's possible. Yesterday, my brother and I did 28 trades. All of the Mons traded were from 2016. In total, only 4 of those trades resulted in lucky Mons. This is not a large sample size, so on its own, this probably doesn't mean much, but I'd be curious if others have also experienced fewer lucky trades, even when they're trading Mons as old as 2016.

I'm going with yes.

Wouldn't surprise me.

I didn't even start that's unfortunate :(

I'm getting approx. 1/10 trades as lucky each batch. Sometimes the noise looks like a signal

I was wondering the same thing. First several trades of 2016 and early 2017 Pokémon had really high lucky ratio. Zero since. I should have “tested” the trades with the ones I really cared about instead of on less important ones. I really would have liked a lucky dratini or BS snorlax instead of poliwrath. :-(

My first trade of the day, every day, has been a special trade with a 2016 mon. It's been lucky for all 4 days now.

On the second day, my second trade was also lucky, but the next ~6 2016 'mon trades none were lucky.

On the third day, the 2nd and 3rd trades both weren't lucky.
(the first and fourth days were just 1 trade on the day - started trading on the 27th).

Obviously my sample size is insanely small, but it seems either special trades, or your first trade of the day, or the combo, has a better lucky chance, as I'm 4/4 on that. I'm about 1/9 on the rest of my 2016 'mon trades. I'm 0/~10 on trades without a 2016 mon included.

I'm 7 from 34 trades personally. Most of my lucky mon (5/7) are actually from Pokemon caught in the last 2 months. My first two trades were lucky, which was well, lucky haha.

I just traded a 2957 Rhydon born 8/25/16 from my 40 to my 2nd one for SD/SE TT 3127 w/10a. Didn’t turn lucky, but SD/SE went to 3135 14a/9/7. I’m not always finding ‘16s getting lucky, but I got 7 luckies today. Mostly from trading newer stuff

***Overall I’m 42 for 354–11.9%

---just traded for 6 of my wife's 2016s. 4 turned out lucky. The 4 luckies I got from her level 19 Scyther, gave her a level 29 Scyther. Level 22 Parasect, gave her a level 20 IB Lapras from '17, level 19 Electabuzz, gave her a level 28 Electabuzz, level 17 Seadra, I gave her level 27 Charizard

It almost seems that way. Friday night my raid group got together and people were getting lucky (heh) left and right. Yesterday after some of us did multiple trades only one trade I saw went lucky (Chansey for DP Lapras, don't know years of either). In every trade at least one Pokemon was from 2016.

It would be nice to know the exact odds of luckiness relative to age of the Pokemon in question. I've only got maybe 3 more 2016 Pokemon I'm willing to trade and 2 are already spoken for.

I suspect that when they rolled out lucky trades, they bumped the lucky rate a fair amount to get people into it (just like gifts were giving tons of stuff the first few days, then calmed down.) It's a typical strategy, 'here's a new thing at double strength, like it, now we'll ramp it down to normal,' and has happened with many other of the new features in the game. So it's not so much that it was nerfed, as that it was buffed when it first came out. Typical pattern for them.

Kinda sucks that if you didn't jump on the early adopter bandwagon, you miss out on the best returns, if that's what Niantic is doing.

I did 40 trades this morning on stuff caught today and within past week, got 4 luckies. Received low level Tauros, Seedot, Makuhita, mid level Aron.