Ultra box worth it or not breakdown
It depends what standpoint u look at the ultra boxes at.
If u value lucky eggs it's 400 coins for 16. 25 cents per egg. Since lucky egg were at 50 percent off before.
Raid passes are 800 coins per 10. 80 coins each.
Supers at 900 coins per 6. 150 coins each.
2100 coins and free star pieces saving 420 coins.
If u are looking to buy this box valuing lucky eggs and want supers at a discount it is
800 coins raid pass
400 coins lucky eggs
480 coins for 6 super incubators which is 80 coins per super with free star pieces.
If u are looking to buy this box not valuing lucky eggs it's
800 coins raid passes
900 coins supers
Free star pieces
Free junk lucky eggs
Saving 20 coins.(level 38-40 people mostly)
For people who don't value lucky eggs and always run 9 incubators it's equal to buying special boxes of 6 raid passes with free star pieces at 480 coins with upgrading regular incubators to super incubators with junk lucky eggs.
So depending which standpoint u view the ultra boxes, it is a really crazy good deal if u value all 3 premium items with free star pieces. It could also be equal to regular special box deal on raid passes with free star pieces with upgraded incubators for those people running 9 incubators with junk eggs, or a really bad deal saving 20 coins if u don't value eggs and don't care about 6 incubators going faster.
Or niantic's way of looking at it
6 Supers at 200 coins each = 1200
10 raid passes at 100 coins each = 1000
16 lucky eggs at 50 coins each = 800 coins.
Free star pieces since this is a world premiere and we don't know it's worth yet according to niantic.
3000 coins worth of a total saving of 1320 coins.
Answers
I'm a totally free player, so I have to look at this from the perspective of whether or not it is worth spending that many free gym-earned coins. I have enough coins saved (4700+) to buy the ultra box and have plenty left over, but then again, the reason I have that many coins is because I am very disciplined about spending them.
At level 39, lucky eggs are worth zero to me. I see no benefit to levelling up, and would be happy to stay at level 39 indefinitely. If I were to buy the ultra box, I would throw out most or all of the lucky eggs immediately, because they are not worth the space they take up.
I use limited-use incubators only for 10km eggs. If I receive a 10km egg and have no incubator, I won't hesitate to pay 150 coins for an incubator. However, I currently have no 10km eggs, and three single-use incubators. Since I use only the infinite incubator for 5km and 2km eggs, it would likely be several months before I would use up the six super incubators from the ultra box. So, time value of money dictates that their theoretical value should be discounted. While I believe the super incubators are worth more than regular incubators, I would value them at between 100-120 coins each, due to the long time that would elapse before I would actually use them all.
I buy approximately one or two raid passes per week. If I had a surplus of them, I might be inclined to do raids I wouldn't do otherwise. However, there is no doubt that I would use them fairly soon, even if I were disciplined about it. Discounting them for the fact that I would be making a bulk purchase, I would value them at 70-80 coins apiece for the purpose of assessing the overall value of the ultra box.
Star pieces are worth something, but I'm not sure how much, and for now, I would assume a very low value.
To summarize, I see the value of the components as follows:
Incubators: 6*100-120 = 600-720
Lucky eggs: 0
Raid passes: 10*70-80 = 700-800
Star pieces: ??? but some positive number
That puts the theoretical value of the box at 1300-1520 coins plus the value of the star pieces. It's not hard to give the star pieces a value that would justify the purchase, but it is also not necessarily clear that this is a compelling deal. It is a really close call, and I will most likely be conservative, and not buy the box.
