I'm a F2P team Instinct member. For the most part, I only care about receiving Charged TMs from raids. In which situation am I more likely to get one? Solo Tier 3 or as a minority team in Legendary raids?
Long answer: Level 5, all the way:
https://thesilphroad.com/science/raid-rewards-secret-multipliers
Short answer: Level 5, all the way. 2x the chance for Fast TM's and 4x the chance for Charge TM's.
Fast TM 2.8% +/-0.7% vs 6.0% +/-0.5%
Charged TM 1.6% +/-0.5% vs 6.5% +/-0.5%
(Not sure if the numbers are still accurate as they don't include Potions, but the gist is the same)
In the same boat as you, F2P Instinct. Last two TMs were quick on a Magneton and charged on a Scyther. But I think I got a little over half of my TMs from level 5 raids.
If you know you're going to be the minority team, you can go snipe the gym just before the raid to get the +2 for ownership, and then do as much damage as you can. More balls = better rewards in general. Or try to find big raids where there are so many players that they can segregate into teams to do multiple raids against the boss, if you can coordinate that (sometimes trivial, sometimes like herding cats in the rain).
Personally, I think the silphroad data is way off on level 3. I've been soloing them pretty consistently one/day and I'd guess that the average for ANY TM is closer to 1 in 10. Maybe other people have a different result, but the Silphroad data would suggest about 1 every 4 level 3 solo raids. It's less than that. Definitely go for level 5.
