Shiny encounters are supposed to be 1/450 outside of community days. Me: 1/1125, for 6 total. Anyone see something like this? I live in a rural area so changing my hunting grounds more than once a week would put another dent in the Poke budget, even with today’s low gas prices
Its all RNG. Started last febuary and since then ive clicked over 700 magijkarp and haven't gotten a shiny, and clivcked over 200 of the supposedly shiny boosted wingull on its weekend and didnt find a single one, meanwhile I got 2 shiny natu in one weekend, and hatched 3 shiny togepi while using only one incubator for the most part in 8 months, anf got a shiny azumaril from my first 7k hatched since it was released.
Its all RNG.
You're looking at it the wrong way.
Every time you tap on a shiny eligible Pokemon imagine you're rolling a 450-sided dice. 6 shinies owned by one person is too small of a sample size to refute this; when your checked encounters begin to pass the hundreds of thousands - if not more - you'll notice your odds begin to curve to match this rate.
More simply as put before me, it's RNG. Supposedly legendary shinies have roughly 1/20 odds yet during Moltres day and the following legendary bird week I didn't encounter one after nearly 40 raids. My fiancee didn't encounter a shiny legendary on either Zapdos or Moltres days. It sucks, but it's the way the game is. Given enough encounters I'm sure I'll hit multiple in rapid succession, but overall my odds will reflect what's been observed and reported.
WADR, I believe I’m looking at it the right way. Shiny odds are calculated from past experience. Granted, the Silph Road 350k sample is a lot larger than my measly 7k. I was asking why my past experience is different from the majority. For example, do there tend to be more at sponsored stops of which there are none where I live. I get that the odds of my next encounter are 1 in 450, or are they 1/1125 cause that’s how I roll😊
Given the small odds we're looking at I'd say even 7k encounters isn't enough to make a general statement. There hasn't been any evidence to support that location affects shiny rates or that personal values are involved that make some people encounter more than others.
Look at my example above regarding legendary shinies. Between the nearly 40 Moltres encountered by me, the > 20 Moltres and > 20 Zapdos encountered by my fiancee we should statistically have one shiny between the two of us right? But we don't.
We can look at egg hatch rates to draw similar conclusions, during the summer Kanto event I burned through 63 eggs before hatching a single Kangaskhan. Reportedly, 4% of eggs - 1/25 odds - yielded Kangaskhan. Amusingly Mr. Mime and Farfetch'd had lower reported odds of hatching yet I hatched at least 5 of each before seeing a Kangaskhan.
RNG is fickle. I was unlucky with my 25 sided die for my last regional and my 20 sided die for shiny Moltres, you're apparently unlucky with your 450 sided one. It'll even out eventually.
I guess that's what I'm trying to impress upon here. Some people just have better one day and others the next, but eventually it normalizes.
Thanks for bringing up the community day thing since that's another case that happened to me. My 6 Bulbasaur shinies to my fiancee's zero despite us both interacting with the same numbers. Inversely, her 5 Mareep to my 2 during Mareep day.
