Shiny Magikarp odds?

During the water event back in March magikarp were very common, but I caught < 100; of those, 3 were shiny. I was very lucky and have evolved them all (despite mediocre IV''s, but who cares - I like to show them off in gyms).

I think the odds were 1:256 during the event (per Silph Rd), but have to be much rarer now. I thought I'd never find another one (total seen 961/caught 918), but just a few days ago my 4th shinykarp appeared (and has since evolved).

A combination of RNG, location and luck!

I know many players still don't have one and a few have several. Good luck for catching one soon! They're fun to have.

Probably 1/4096
There is no point in hunting for them until a method of shiny hunting is discovered.

I am already level 40 two months ago, haven’t caught one out of 1800, so maybe I need to catch more till 4000.

It's all dumb luck. The fifth karp I ever caught was my first and only shiny, and I haven't seen one since then out of maybe 20, tops. But 1/5 isn't so bad, considering my biome is dry as hell.

I've caught around 1,600 Magikarp in total, of which maybe 500 were prior to shinies being released. Of the approximately 1,100 since then, five have been shinies. Only one was during the water event when shinies were first released. After that one, I had no shinies until August, but since early August, I have caught four more, out of maybe 500-600 'Karps caught in that time. I would guess that the 1 in 256 statistic is still accurate.

Of the five I have caught, one has been "amazing" (82+%), one has been "strong" (67-80%), one has been "decent" (50-64%), and two have been "may not be great in battle" (<50%). The two best ones were low level when caught.

1/4096 is shiny ratio from one of the handheld Pokemon games. POGO definitely has a better ratio.
1/256 is a speculated number for event shiny rate that matches findings pretty accurately. It has been speculated that the might drop to 1/512 outside of events.

The secret to catching shinies? Come to Hawaii.

All RNG. By my 250th Magikarp caught, I already had 3 shinies; 250th being the 3rd.

For me its 1 in ~4500 so far.

I have 2 shineys and I have caught 453 but I'm not sure how many were before shineys were available. Probably not that many since I don't see them often here until recently. I've been extremely lucky.