For some bosses I already have a good version that I would like to power up. Also by knowing the 100% IV CP of the Raid reward bosses, we sometimes have a pretty good estimate of the expected IV of the reward pokemon.
In such situations, we have a trade-off between catching the Reward-Pokemon more likely (golden razz) and getting more candy from it (pinap). I want to deduce the berry to use as function of the number of reward balls that I have left, and that function should maximize the expected number of candy.
For Tyrannitar I use the following assumptions:
base capture rate (BCR) 5%
Curve Ball: 1.7
Golden Razz (GR): 2.5
candy for GR: 12 (I always wait for double candy events to trash excess rare mons)
candy for pinap (PI): 22
catching trex with one throw:
1- ((1-BCR)^(1.7*2.5)) = 19.59% for GR and 8.35% for PI
which yields the following number of expected candy with GR and PI
1 2.350460938 1.837108653
2 4.24053299 3.991294494
3 5.760393332 5.723536196
4 6.982555977 7.116480693
5 8.073024141 8.359328062
which means that I should use pinap until I only have 3 Balls left in which case I switch to golden razz.
For Snorlax/Lapras with 5 (3+2) or 8 (2*3 +2) candies I would have to switch to golden razz with 4 balls left already.
1 0.9793587241 0.6680395103
2 1.766888746 1.565616944
3 2.400163889 2.28738432
4 2.909398324 2.86777786
5 3.318888122 3.334488705
6 3.660715309 3.72408194
7 3.973998237 4.081142216
I didn't include the throw bonuses of accurate throws and did not include the probability of curve balls not curving (a bug that appears in ~10% of my raid rewards, but never in regular capture encounters) or other misses (jumps or attacks)
Did I do something fundamentally wrong? Is it generally a good advice for those of you only interested in candy?
TLDR: Use pinap berries on your raid reward until you have only 3-4 balls left, then switch to golden razz
I normally use Pinap when I know the IV is <90%, but only the first 2/3 balls, I want to have around 6/7 balls left to use golden berry just because raid bosses are moving too much and you can easily miss 2/3 balls per raid boss without even noticing.
I think that having only 3/4 balls left for a golden berry is very risky, I have seen Tyranitar attack me 3 times in a row in less than the time I can make a try to get him.
Too keep it simple I basically do what you do for the other Tier 4 pokes except for TTar and Machamp (although I didn't do any calculations or anything but thanks for the info). For my exceptions I use all gold razzberries. I just would like to have the poke and some candy vs. not having anything even if they aren't perfect (as I do spend extra money on raid passes - I want something over nothing especially if I don't get any TMs as an reward). Sometimes they end up with good movesets with high IVs, for me 93%+ is serviceable.
Very interesting analysis Aldonis. Have you been able to consistently get 3 great or nice consecutive curveballs on a t'tar? I am completely guessing there is a correlation between number of consecutive hits and catch rate. After missing a catch on the the last t'tar, I have been throwing them straight in instead of a curveball. For some reason, he doesn't bat these away. I've caught the last 2 this way on by having 3 consequent hits. Using this method of not "curving" i wonder if using a pin app would work as well.
