Mewtwo ran away..
Finally got my ex raid pass. 11 balls, all excellent or great + curve + golden berry+ gold medal. Then mewtwo ran away. Was this a bug? Or was the base rate changed? Otherwise how can it be possible? 34% catch rate per throw * 11 throws.
Answers
Yep. You're just very unlucky. Hope that doesn't happen next time.
I didn't throw as well as you did, I missed one and had some nice in there, and caught Mewtwo on my last ball (12, not only did we do color teams, but we owned the gym.) Thanked the guy who took it (well before the raid started), helped fend off challengers until the raid started.
If 100 people had your throws against Mewtwo, 99 of them would catch it. You're the unlucky one that didn't. Next time should be different, here's hoping it's soon.
Sadly, this is a case of really bad luck I'm afraid. I've seen this happen to a few in my local Discord group as well. 10+ balls, all great/excellent curved throws with gold razz and the gold psychic medal catch boost, yet it still runs away.
We had one person who was miffed that his weather boosted 2844 Mewtwo ran on him today. It wasn't til a bit later when we figured out what the IVs are for a 2844 Mewtwo, and the mood went from miffed to crushed.
The pokegods are a cruel lot sometimes. =\
After the revamp of Kyogre, I lost three in a row with 10+ balls and had a vast majority of excellent throws. Like you, it just meant I suck at RNG. Hopefully the game exists when you get a second chance to catch a mewtwo. I have not been so lucky, and hopefully I don't suck as bad on a fifty-fifty catch rate that you screwed up.