Karp Nr. 1: ADS 11/13/12, lvl 29 (160 CP), lucky
Karp Nr. 2: ADS 15/15/14, lvl 19 (118 CP), not lucky
I have plenty of good Vaporeon, as well as a 5/3/5 Gary. Though it's Bite-Outrage, so it'd need TMs.
My opinion is that the lucky lvl 29 would be ready to go if a relevant T3 raid boss were to appear, while the 98% one would require power ups.
Any reason I should evolve the high IV but low CP Karp over the lucky one?
I'm a rural player in an area without any active decent lvl players.
The only way I could get Kyogre/Palkia etc. would be if they became research rewards.
Magikarp are also somewhat rare, so I'm not be able to get another 400 candy before winter.
No reason especially if stardust and candy are not easily acquired for you. (If I were to choose my first double water Gary, I would take the 98 for sure. If you just look for a good water attacker without too much Stardust spent, take the higher level one.) 80% IV is alright and will usually serve you well, and lucky is a nice bonus.
Water attackers will still be relevant against Regirock, any fire-pkm (Ho-oh just reappeared) and also Heatran. So taking the high IV isn't all too bad either.
The fact that OP implied he can't do legendary raids aside, isn't water sub optimal against all 3 of the legendaries you listed?
Regi's main counters are Kyogre and Machamp;
Ho-Oh is much easier with Golem/ double rock TTar;
Heatran is double weak to ground, and with Rhyperior as well as probably new moves coming with gen 4, Gary will ve sub optimal in that matchup as well.
I can't even think of any potential T3 fire type raid boss that'd be viable.
On top of that Flareon is easily obtainable, Moltres has been and Entei will be a research reward.
Gary just seems underwhelming any way you look at the situation.
I'd go with the 80% lucky.
It'll be of some use in gyms, usable in a few raids and doesn't need any dust or candy investment.
https://pokemongo.gamepress.gg/cpcalc#/
When evolved, the level 29 with 80% IVs will be 2643cp.
The level 19 with 98% IVs will be 1776cp. It will take an additional 62 candy and 70K stardust to reach level 29 and 2712cp.
Magikarp is only 1km buddy distance, so that extra candy could be obtained in a few weeks.
From level 29 to 40:
80% lucky costs 80K stardust and 190 candy for 3190cp.
98% costs 160K stardust and 190 candy for 3273cp and extra bragging rights.
To get the 98% up to the same level as the 80% lucky is almost as much stardust as maxing out the 80% lucky.
