Last ball legendary raid boss bug?

I caught an Articuno on the last ball (of 5) for my niece and yesterday a guy at the moltres raid got it on his last throw (I think he only got 6 balls).

I think psychologically it's more damaging to miss the last ball (than say the first one) so we remember it more. Especially with the Lugias since I think their catch base is still 2% rather than 3% like the others.

We had the very same discussion today, but then one member of our Raid group catched Moltres with the last ball. So it is definitely possible.

Of all my raid catches(all tiers) so far, probably totals 100 already, none of them came from the last throw if I remember correctly.

It's probably possible, but one thing I've seen is if you use the catch calculator here, even if you toss a curved, great throw with golden razz, the chance to catch it is only ~18% for Moltres and ~11% for Lugia (assuming the circle is not too small)...

Even with 10 balls, you'll looking at 60-70 percent total to catch assuming you even HIT ALL the balls as great/curved with golden razzberries. This means RNG could still be cruel and you can not catch it with any one ball.

The odds are low each throw and having more throws helps, but it's still tough and not a sure thing since most skilled people are probably getting closer to 50/50 due to some misses/not great throws, batted away, etc...

All I've been doing is just trying to toss better curved/great/golden razz and accept what is given.

My last 3 failed catches was from 25 tosses, 23 hits with 1 Excellent, 14 Great, 10 Regular...Last was 7/8 all great/curved/golden razz so odds are still low...but you can improve your game by doing more damage (hopefully +6 balls, etc...).

Just need to do more raids to luck out sometime.

Definitely not a bug- the fact that you got to the last ball speaks for itself- you only have a small sample size to deal with.

1. If you caught the pokemon at any point before the last ball you wouldn't have reached that stage and therefore giving the last ball catch a 0% probability
2. If you actually get to the last ball, that throw is no different than any other throw and the probability of catching it is still low- less than 20% for a curve ball excellent.
3. Assumption that you do hit curve ball excellents with golden razz every time in the last ball 10 times in a row, there is still a 10% chance of not capturing a single pokemon.

All my last balls on legendaries did one shake and fled. I'm convinced that it's possible to catch a legendary on your last throw, but if you don't you'll face a standard animation.

I think it's a bug. I've done over 100 legendary raids. If I'm on the last ball, it pops out after 1 shake. Every single time.