I could see it getting Icicle spear one day, but It probably still wouldn't outclass Mamoswine. If you have enough Latias/Latios counters already you could save it anyway, a 100% community day move mon is pretty nice even if it isn't relevant.
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The chances of it getting a Community Day is rather small (no fan favourite, doesn't fit in the "pattern"). However, I wouldn't evolve it as I don't have an immediate need for it.
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THERE IS NO PATTERN (PERIOD)
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Can’t tell if this is a serious question, but the chance of a shellder CD is close to zero. Remember, they only do 1 per month, and it has to be a mon that will get people interested. Shellder already has a great ice moveset, with Avalanche being the ice version of Dynamic Punch.
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I'm ready for purple day, too!
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It's not like you would get any real use from a Muk so might as well keep it unevolved
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Most of these research tasks are not worth bothering with, but this one was way better than getting 3-5 berries