June Community Day: Trapinch?
I've been thinking about this, perhaps a little too much. But what is apparent is the trend of starter, followed by 10km hatch, followed by starter, and so on. May will be Charmander, which we pretty much predicted, and Charizard will likely obtain Blast Burn. I'd put money on July being Squirtle, and consequently Blastoise with Hydro Cannon. The big question is June. My prediction is Trapinch.
Dratini was a 10k hatch from Gen I, and Mareep a 10k hatch from Gen II. By the time June rolls around, Gen III would have been around for six months or so. This, and the 10k pattern thus far, indicates to me that there's a very good chance we'll see a 10k hatch from Gen III show up in June's CD - but which one?
First, I'm going to eliminate Chimecho, Sableye, and Feebas, since they either i) don't evolve, ii) have a single evolution.
Now we're left with:
i) Ralts
ii) Trapinch
iii) Bagon
iv) Beldum
v) Slakoth
This is where more assumptions need to come into the picture. I do not believe we are going to see Bagon or Beldum, for no reason other than the fact that they are amongst the most powerful within the context of Gen III, and it would be too 'early' for Niantic to release them in such a widespread manner. Perhaps in the future for these two. Now we are left with Slakoth, Trapinch, and Ralts.
Another common denominator with the 10k egg CDs is a dragon-type move. Dragonite got Draco Meteor, and Ampharos got Dragon Pulse. Slaking and Gardevoir do not learn dragon-type moves in the main games, but Flygon does (duh, right?).
Flygon is, further, not exactly super useful in the current meta. As such, it isn't particularly desirable outside from the fact that it's rare (much like Ampharos). I therefore envision us having Trapinch as the June CD feature, with a strong, potentially new dragon-type move as its exclusive move (Dragon Rush, or Dragon Dance).
Thoughts?
Answers
I came to the same conclusion, except the Gen 3 bit. I don't think we'll see a Gen 3 Community day until 2019. One of the goals of these is to make hard to get mon available to everyone, but Gen 3 is still too new.
Though, looking at the 10k options, there aren't a lot of good ones left, except Larvitar which I expect circa August or October.
Maybe it just needs to be rare and not necessarily 10K rare.
Part of the reason why I think Trapinch in particular, and not Ralts/Bagon/Beldum/even Slakoth, is the likeliest candidate is because Trapinch isn't a particularly desirable mon. Its tremendously outclassed by other existing options and thus isn't a prize on the same level as Larvitar, Beldum, Bagon, Ralts, etc. are. So if everyone has one, eh, it doesn't matter particularly. It won't be severely game-changing in any way. Not to mention, by the time June comes around, Gen IV might be looming.
