IV luck - the good with the bad
Just sharing my raid IV luck, interested in seeing what luck others have had too (although for those of you with many more raids, perhaps you'll need to limit it).
Having just about reached 216 total raids completed, the expected number of each IV is known:
- one 100%
- 3 98%
- 6 96%
- 10 93%
My luck has been... Well, oddly distributed.
- 0 100%s (*cries*)
- EIGHT 98%s (cheers)
- four 96%s (a little low, but okay)
- three 93%s (what the hell?)
In total I've gotten 15 93% or higher out of an expected 20, which is quite unfortunate. On the other have I've gotten 12 96% or higher out of an expected 10, and eight 98% or higher out of an expected 4 (insanely good). The hundred is obviously hit or miss (and an unfortunate miss).
The kicker is that the majority of those 98%s have come really recently:
2 lick gengar (both 14 attack)
2 thunder shock zapdos (one 14 attack)
1 sky attack moltres (14 attack)
1 giratina (didn't catch it, 14 attack)
1 Tyranitar yesterday
The only 1 that came before the recent raid days was another Tyranitar (14 attack) a while ago. So prior to those 7 98%s probably in my last 75 raids, I was rocking quite terrible IV luck. Very happy about my recent RNG (although it'd be nice to not have almost all of them at 14 attack...)
Answers
355 Legendary. Above 93% IV got only: Shiny Ho-Oh 96%, Zapdos with TS 100%, Regice 96%, Regirock 98%, Moltres with SA 96%, 96% SB Mewtwo and 96% with IB and Deoxys 96%.
I using only Zappy, and SB Mewtwos but probbly will power up that Moltres. I havent single 91% Groudon or Kyogre(Despite caught 33 of them), and just one 93% Ray.( 45 caught)
From regular raids i caught one perfect Tangela, one 98% Wailmer and one 96% Lick Gengar.
For me my raid iv luck prevents me from getting any 100ivs from Legendaries save for the 2 Mewtwos during the ultra bonus unlock, but i had got the following 98%;
* Rayquaza, Latios, Regirock, Giratina, Cresselia. Also 1 Rayquaza and 2 Lugias with the same ivs fled.
* 95% include 1 Groudon, 1 Latias, 2 Mewtwo (1 Fled during Mewtwo month), 1 Moltres, 1 Lugia, 1 Shiny Articuno (13 atk) and 1 Regirock.
As for Non Legendaries, i only saw 100ivs from Dratini, Magikarp and Shinx from tier 1, Mawile from tier 2 and 3 Machamps from tier 3. 98s are legion.
This is out of 604 Legendary Raids and 1120 Regular Raids.
"Having just about reached 216 total raids completed, the expected number of each IV is known:"
To say you expect to match these distributions after hitting 216 on the dot is a fundamental misunderstanding of how statistics work. After an infinitesimally large amount of raids yes, your catches would curve toward these odds. The reality of it is every single raid you do you essentially roll a 216 sided die where repeated rolls are allowed.
I don't mean to rain on your parade about it if you do get this but a lot of times I'll see people complain about not getting an "expected" number of shinies or something, usually on Community Days. Even with ~1/20 odds it's possible to go a full CD without encountering a single shiny.
I have a good understanding of statistics, thanks :)
I'm obviously not expecting to match the expected value, but simply it's an easy number to check at to see my "luck".
As in, it's pretty hard to complain that I'm unlucky and haven't seen a single 100% yet if I've only done 50 raids. At 216 raids I can at least say I'm not lucky (i.e. I'm performing below expectation) although I'd agree that claiming one is unlucky at that point is a bit over the top.
Fluctuation is obviously pretty big, but even then there's only about a 5% chance that you'd catch 8 or more Pokemon with 98% or higher IVs in 216 attempts - so it's definitely fair to say I've been lucky there (top 5% of luck). Likewise, there's only a 9.4% chance that you'd find 15 or fewer 93% or higher Pokemon in 216 attempts, so based on that metric it's perfectly reasonable to say I'm unlucky!
Which is what I find interesting, I'm both lucky and unlucky. Very lucky (top 5%) with my 98%s, but also very unlucky (bottom 9%) with my 93% and highers.
I’ve won 479 legendary raids...of the catches 1 was perfect, an Articuno. 325 regular raids, 1 perfect boosted Machamp.
I didn’t get my first 98+% legendary until April 2018. Since then a 98% Shadowball Mewtwo, 98% Latias, 100% Articuno, 98% Kyogre, traded for a boosted Groudon and got 98%, 98% Shiny Zapdos, two 98% Giratina, 98% Regirock.
Err, that's exactly how expected value works.
Most of the time, when the expected value is 1 you see a reasonably large probability at 0 as well. Then 1 itself has the highest probability, and 2+all have rapidly decreasing probabilities to offset the mass at 0...
In this case:
36.7% probability at 0
36.9% probability at 1
18.4% probability at 2
6.1% probability at 3
1.5% probability at 4
0.4% probability at 5 or higher
It took me nearly a year to get my first max IV from a raid, whilst everyone else in my community received at least one in the first few months.
I've now encountered 6 max IVs from 1,820 raids - 863 ordinary and 857 legendary raids. Those are: Golem, Lugia (ran), Piloswine, Lickitung, Giratina and Shinx. The last 3 were in the last month or two, which I'm pretty pleased with. My luck with encounters, egg hatches and raids have all taken a boost lately, which has made me unpopular with my local community xD although I do play the most out of everyone and it's been a long time coming after a serious year-long drought.
