GamePress

I don't believe it's random.

I'm level 40, have been for awhile. Been playing since day one. I've caught a ridiculous amount of mons. Everybody preaches about RNG but I don't buy it, I have too much experience. I already have 100% IV in 3 different species of Gen 4, but my best ever Venonat is 91%. That's just one example. There is no way it's "random". Convince me otherwise, and unless you wrote the code or control the servers, I'm not buying what you're selling. Some Pokemon are just nerfed, and it may be different mons for different players.

Asked by Jinx1826 years 4 months ago
Report

Answers

...all spawned mon are *identical* (bar shiny status) for players level 30+. Some species might spawn better, but it's not different between players.

Up
0
Down

I realized that after I said it, so you're right. But hatches, raids and field rewards can't be compared in that way. Hatched 2 perfect Magikarp in a row. But Vulpix? All crap right outta the egg, guaranteed.

Up
0
Down

That's how rng works. Me and my wife did 400 trades and she got like ten 100 ivs while i got none. And it's mostly the same mon on a trade.

Up
0
Down

I know someone who got a perfect alolan vulpix their first 7k egg hatch, it is all RNG. some get the good end others get the bad end, but all in all, its all just RNG

Up
0
Down

It shows when you look at a large enough sample size. Your sample size as one player is simply too small. I have 3 100% Pidgeys and 0 100% Weedles, even though the difference in their catch numbers isn't that large (7,6k vs. 5k). Is that RNG? Absolutely it is, there's no way I can claim with that small of a sample size that there's anything anomalous going on.

Up
0
Down

I do have a large enough sample size. I wasn't boasting when I said how many I've caught. Thousands. The difference between an oddish and a venonat is obvious. I expected this but I know what I'm seeing.

Up
0
Down

Thousands is nothing. How many total catches? If it's less than a few tens of millions, your sample size is lacking.

Up
0
Down

I disagree with your logic. The more times i roll a dice, the closer it gets to 1:6. And that doesn't take thousands of times to get there. A hundred times will get you in the ballpark

Up
0
Down

Dice only have six possible results, so the sample size needed to see the proper statistical pattern is somewhere along the lines of a few hundred to a few thousand (EDIT: If we're going for a statistically solid result). IV have 4096 possible results, which proportionally increases the number of needed trials.

Up
0
Down

Fine. Go catch 20 oddish and 20 Venonat and see what you get. Or somebody do a study cuz Im too lazy. But im right.

Up
0
Down

You claim something is wrong, so the burden of proof is on you. I have noticed absolutely nothing anomalous with the IVs of either species so I see no need to help you prove your ridiculous theory. Besides I have a hundo of both of those species already.

Up
0
Down

I'm not going to bother. I just stated what I was experiencing. Call it ridiculous.
But you didn't write the code.

Up
0
Down

You didn't write the code either, and your personal experiences aren't proof of what you're suggesting.

Up
0
Down

I will take that under advisement that I should not learn from my personal experience. Thank you for your input, random internet person.

Up
0
Down

I used Venonat for an example because they are very common and i know I've caught thousands of them. I also know that the more times I roll a dice for a specific number, the closer my chances will be to 1:6. I throw away any oddish less than 98% because I have 12 evolutions 98+ but i've never even reached 98% with a Venonat.
That defies statistical math.
If I went out right now I could catch 20 of each. I guarantee you one of the Oddish would be 80+. The Venonats would almost definitely all be crap.
After all my time playing, I know this to be a fact, I don't even have to do it.

Up
0
Down

The chance that you get at least one Oddish out of 20 that's 80%+ is 90,5%. I don't need your guarantee, if I were to catch a random 20 of any pokemon, I would expect to find one above 80% most of the time.

The Venonat is a more unlikely result. Assuming by trash you mean below 50%, we get a tiny 0,0000095% probability that each and every one of them fails to go above 50%. If you repeat that test multiple times and it adheres to your assumption, post proof and you will probably get some attention. If you then repeat it a few tens of times, you will have a solid case by which to argue that there is indeed something wrong with the RNG you're getting on Venonat IVs.

(Assuming non-WB odds for both.)

Up
0
Down

I think we got something here.....
Who wants to go catch a bunch of Vnats with trash IVs?
Not me.
My gotcha catches tons. all crap

Up
0
Down

I'm in no way an expert, but I would think that arranging the game so that certain players are predisposed, if you will, to have differing odds of encountering higher/lower IVs for specific Mons than others would be a coding nightmare. With the large number of Mons out there, you're bound to have really good luck encountering high IVS of some, but not others.

Up
0
Down

I know, and i agree. I'm telling you what I'm experiencing. I've been sitting on this for awhile now but i had to say something. Like I said, three gen 4 100% already. Can I get a good Scyther? Hell no

Up
0
Down

I think we've all had similar experiences. For instance, I've caught 448 Houndour, 3 of them hundos. I've caught 7204 Rattata, 0 of them hundos.

If you were to roll a twenty-sided die five times, its highly unlikely yet entirely possible that you could roll a 20 every single time. On the other end of the spectrum, you could roll it hundreds of times and never roll a 20. Both instances are, of course, unlikely outliers, but they're still within the realm of possibility.

RNG can appear biased or unbelievably ridiculous, but it's still just RNG.

Up
0
Down

Nope. I don't buy it. Can't get a good Houndour myself. But I got 4 Hundo Walrein and 2 98s.
Ive rolled the dice enough times that the odds dont add up.

Up
0
Down

You don't have to buy it, but the kind of alternative you're suggesting isn't a realistic possibility either. Plus, as another user pointed out in their post, your sample size (though it may seem sizeable as an individual player) is nowhere near large enough to indicate a statistical anomaly affecting the playerbase at large.

Up
0
Down

You have a fundamental misunderstanding with what randomness means. It does not mean uniform distribution. It does not mean that it's more likely for you to get exactly one hundo of every species rather than a few hundos in one species and zero in another.

Up
0
Down

I fully understand what randomness is.
I really don't understand the RNG religion. I expected this. Prove it's random.
I'm waiting...

Up
0
Down

Have you ever studied probability and statistics? Learned even the basics? This is not a religion, it's cold, hard math, and you're showing you don't understand it.

Up
0
Down

I don't think you have. Because you're showing a clear lack of understanding of the basics. Sample size is everything, and your sample size is inconsequential. The top ranked player in the world in catches is BrandonTan91 with 450k catches and he doesn't have a large enough sample size to prove anything by himself.

Up
0
Down

This. Absolutely. Sample size is everything in statistical analysis (which is what you are attempting to engage in).

Up
0
Down

So in your advanced mathematical wizardry, you believe this:
I catch 1000 species x
I catch 1000 species y
I have 8 species x above 98% and species y tops out at 91% all time. And that's just normal probability and statistics to you.
You're right, I don't understand that.

Up
0
Down

That is a perfectly normal result statistically speaking, because the sample size is very small. You have less than a fourth as many samples as there are possible results. It's like you were rolling two dice two times and being surprised that first you got two sixes and then no sixes.

Up
0
Down

Full disclosure:
I have never been struck by lightning
attacked by a shark
won the megamillion lottery

Up
0
Down

As Housunkannatin already pointed out, you're the one claiming that there is an anomaly, so the burden of proof is on you to prove that such an anomaly exists. You're suggesting that the system of RNG in the game functions differently than what is recognized and accepted by the vast majority of the playerbase, including websites such as GP and the Silph Road. On top of that, you're lacking the data to support your claim. It's not up to the rest of the community to disprove your speculation.

Up
0
Down

Shiny 100% cyndaquil today.
My 3rd.
Still can't get a good Rhydon, jus sayin....
:)

Up
0
Down

I've got 100% Rhydon, but of the Cyndaquils the best I managed was one 91%, with only one other over 80%... Just RNG :-)

Up
0
Down

I've got 100% Rhydon, but of the Cyndaquils the best I managed was one 91%, with only one other over 80%... Just RNG :-)

Up
0
Down

I've never seen proof of RNG on the Silph Road. Everyone just accepts it. Majority opinion means nothing to me.
Some people think the world is flat. I question that.

Up
0
Down

While I agree, trash (Venonat, Paras, hoppip) are things I look for the highest CP to keep one of---I don't check everything. However, some of my more recent 100s were the result of a trade, 3910 trades (3500 after lucky option). Not going to purposely trade for trash.

Up
0
Down

by hkn 6 years 5 months ago

RNGs are not truly random. They work by applying a mathematical function to a seed variable (such as the current time). Knowing how horrible Niantic are at programming, I would not be surprised if they used something like the trainer ID as the seed variable.

Up
0
Down

Remember that IVs are the same for everyone, so they can't use anybody's trainer ID for that. Shinies are personal, so it's very much likely that they use the trainer ID, and that's honestly where funky RNG could be showing if some people are always finding more shinies than the norm.

Up
0
Down

Lol I'm a industrial controls engineer, I program PLCs to run machines. Last week I created an RNG myself to simulate data. I used the scan time of the processor for presets in timers because it was truly the only "random" thing I could think of. But it's not like rolling a dice. You are correct.

Up
0
Down

Could also explain why I tend to get good IV's back to back. The variable is still in the good range.

Up
0
Down

I rarely check common Pokemon, so have probably discarded a few perfects of different species, but 100% venonauts exist:

Up
0
Down

I'm sure they do. I have a 100% Yanma (holy shit). But i also have 4 hundo Vileplumes and 3 98s

Up
0
Down

I've probably thrown away many high iv 'trash mons' because I don't check iv's unless it's high CP & a possible keeper as I know I won't be powering it up. Is it normal practice to IV check every mon you catch?

Up
0
Down

I check them more now and I've also found a few were 100s as I was trying to trade/grind them for candy. Bellsprout and Oddish are boosted a lot, both sunny AND cloudy---the OP is comparing those to Venonat...cloudy and rainy.

Up
0
Down

I'm in Indiana.
All weather is common and Vnat and Oddish are just as common on any given day.
Stats are from before weather boost was even a thing.
Both Gen 1

Up
0
Down