Discussion about eggs and how their rarity affects you.

I feel like we will go down a rabbit hole discussing the finer points of the study in regards to biome. But what the hell.

The main reason that the study shown above still makes biome depndant draws highly improbable is because the tiers themselves would not have been as plain as they were across the larger data sets. For example, lets say that Dratini are 8 out of 315 where they are common tier. If they were 4/315 in other biome sets the averages would have been much less than 8/315 across other data sets especially if the premise is that stops reference the more rare water biome. Now, there could be many more tiers of rarity that are being averaged to get 8/315 like lets say a 16/315 stop/area. But those reports (which were checked) did not exist. No one reported such singular numbers out of larger sample sizes. In fact as more samples rolled in the anomalies faded to what became closer and closer to the data presented. Now, it cannot be definitively said that biomes do not effect the draw since that was not directly controlled for. However, I think that based on the lack of obvious singularities need to support a full "biome based draw" cannot at all be found it is safe to assume that if the draw is affected it isn't as much as people claim or perceive. We are creatures that like patterns though and it is hard to convince anyone that there is not some bearing.

Plus when this data was reviewed about tiers and balanced with the much older data the tiers also became very apparent thus making this theory in fact spread across not just a large amount of data but a massive one (I think it wound up over 350K hatches).

In reality though there could be some smaller effect than what folks often claim that is biome based. It would be almost impossible to control for a small one, or one that may move (etc) with our general lack of understanding of biomes and no solid theory on how a stop would source them and zero real ability to control incoming info for such research and gain a large enough sample size quickly.

TLDR: I think biomes MAY skew the numbers a bit but not enough to reasonably deny the percentage numbers that I am suggesting toying with here.

That is pretty cool. I forgot to add above that since (I think) the perfect IV draw from eggs is 1 per 216 that 315/216=1.45%. If 100% mon are what you are looking for you can add that to your base total.

One other thing that the tiers make interesting is that while we go "wow" when we see a 100% Dragonite. However, based on the percentage of drops and percentages of 100% IV mons, a 100% Dragonite is 8X more common than a 100% Lapras or Snorlax....or Yanma or Quilfish (etc). So folks that have a hatched 100% Quilfish have had a way more "lucky" draw than someone with a 100% Dragonite or Tyranitar. That is hard to wrap my head around but true.

You are reading it wrong. Your chances of getting a Snorlax from a 10K egg that you already have are 2.57 percent. There are less Pokemon that are hidden in 10K eggs than other eggs.

If you have a 10K egg there is a 2.57% chance it is a Snorlax.

If you draw 315 eggs regardless of the egg type you will be in the correct range to draw one Snorlax.

Thinking of the Pokemon drawn per egg type skews the true rarity in a way since all eggs are not equally common and you do not draw eggs from Pokestops. You draw Pokemon that are concealed within eggs but already predetermined at the time of you spinning and receiving it.

Part of the misunderstanding is that I posted the wrong graphic. Please check my OP again for the correct graphic.

Edit-I did not downvote you fyi.