Cap on Lucky Pokemon or much lower odds of getting a Lucky Pokemon now?
One person I regularly trade with and I have traded about 20 Pokémon in the last 3 days without getting a single Lucky. Prior to that, we traded about 50 and got more than 20 Lucky Pokémon. It hasn't been restricted to the one person; I haven't gotten a single lucky from anyone I've traded with since the update to the Lucky Pokémon.
My first thought, of course, is this is just "R"NG - we were running ridiculously lucky (pun intended) for a while, but now are back to "normal". But other people I trade with are noting the same thing - they haven't gotten many Lucky Pokémon since the update. Has anyone else noticed this happening (or is it a stated change that my Google-Fu is failing to uncover), or is it really just "R"NG?
Answers
Frequent trader, less luckies recently. I did trade for a SA Moltres this morning, didn't turn lucky when I got it but went 1860 15a/13/15. Best IV % so far. Only lucky today was a weezing.
Better luck doing Moltres raid this morning got another shiny. One more raid in late afternoon, boosted Zapdos...shiny with 15a. 4 out of my last 5 Zapdos raids were shiny, including a 14a/15/15.
Definitely has been nerfed IMHO. I trade frequently and have not had a Lucky in the past week and that one was a June 2017 Mon. Earlier I had been getting lucky 20-30% of the time, now my aggregate lucky count is only 31 out of 454 trades. Thus a certain nerf for me. I tend to trade freshly caught Mons (saving my older ones and aging them like fine wines) so what I suspect has happened is that Niantic lowered the lucky rate for new Mons but hard to tell if they nerfed the rate for older Mons. Gamepress (I think) did a study on luckies recently and suggested that new Mon lucky rate was 25% and that by 18 months in storage the rate was 75% and by 24-27 months is was 100% which is kind of what they announced recently. Looks to me like the lucky rate is more logarithmic now (as it should be IMHO) with new Mons at 5% or less and 18-24+ month Mons at a very high rate. Fair enough, we gotta hold on to Mons for a while to get a "guaranteed" lucky but lets hope Niantic does not change policy against us in coming months.
Hi, interesting that your aggregate % is almost same as mine (although you have far more trades). Maybe a 7-9% lucky rate is the norm, longer term. I have had a few legendary (Mewtwo) trades turn lucky but they were ONLY Mewtwo from one party (as my son's account gets v good Mewtwos and mine does not ... another bit of evidence against RNG but I will not digress on this).
BTW the idea that real RNG is at play is questionable. Here are three observations. 1) In my experience trades tend to re-roll IVs into a limited number of outcomes and NOT a wide distribution of outcomes which a truly random process would do, IE my best trades have often bumped Mons to one of two high results (91 Attack 15 or 96 A14) . If truly random I would get many other "high IV outcomes". 2) my son and I each caught the same Mon and later traded it and got the exact same re-roll ... how is that random? the odds of that happening are incredibly low if truly random. 3) it appears to me that Mons tend to keep relatively similar attributes (ie defense strong, HP strong) after a trade thus perhaps the new attributes are not random either. I don't have a problem with the "limited outcomes" as this is consistent with other elements of PMGO. For example in raids how many times have you repeatedly caught the exact same Mon (IV and CP wise)? Thus not truly random. Same with with wild caught Mons ... how many 78% attack 13 Murkrows do you own??? LOL
