Candies at gyms?
Saw this survey and wonder now if there has been a change in the odds.
https://thesilphroad.com/science/bonus-candies-awarded-berrying-gyms/
My little fellow has been at the gym more than a month now, I’ve feed her 901 berries and received 21 candies. Deduct 3-4 due to double candy in the beginning but it’s still 17-18 candies compared to the expected 10-11. I haven’t done the math but the numbers are telling me that this is a bit to high to be explained by pure randomness.
What’s your experience?
Answers
I dump hundreds of berries per day to open up bag space and I usually do it mindlessly on gyms that I'm trying to get to gold without even looking at the screen but I've noticed that I get random candies at least thrice a day for feeding. I haven't been keeping track at all.
Anyways, statistics are just that, statistics; if you fall under or over the range given for a specific statistic it's nothing out of the ordinary. Remember they are designed to give averaged estimates of the probability for an event to take place, so it's not a rule or a given.
https://www.reddit.com/r/theydidthemath/?st=JH0IZ8LP&sh=3451669c
Ok, so I checked. The probability for more than 17 candies in 901 tries with a probability of 1,2 % in each try is 2,7 %.
Not totally improbable but with scientific reasoning you would say that there is a statistical significant difference between my sample and the predicted sample. In others words, it seems that the previous assumption made in the study from The Silph Road is no longer valid.
2,7% looks small, but what does it mean? It means that on average, 5 people out of 200 will experience your result. It means that if there are 20 million people playing the game (I don't remember the actual numbers, just an example), you will likely find half a million people who experienced this kind of anomaly.
Your dataset isn't even close to large enough to consider the possibility of the previous TSR assumption not being valid anymore. You'd need data from thousands of berries to have the beginnings of a case and tens of thousands to have any kind of reasonable suspicion that the previous numbers don't apply anymore.
Is there any way to check and see how many Candies we've received? I can only think of 1 occasion where I conclusively got a Candy from feeding berries to Pokémon in gyms, and I'm currently at 2548 berries fed to Pokémon in gyms. I'm sure I've gotten more than 1 Candy for 2548 Berries fed, but I have no idea how to find out.
