Now that the regi's are out, and ne of them is almost over, there cant be much more time until it launches.
The deluge of events like articuno and this mass XP farming event I think is the largest red flag, as Mamoswine and other ice types will outpace Articuno, so im thinking they're trying to squeeze in a little more use of it before gen IV (that and the removal of sneasel, miadreavous and Piloswine from raids, I know that electabuzz is in the current pool but my raid group hasn't seen any) makes me think its within months.
Assuming that it launches when a Rayquaza return ends, that's 4 months (the 2 regi's, groudon and rayquaza, assuming the last 2 get events like kyogre) possibly 7 if they give a month of each dog but that seams unlikely as I doubt gen IV would start off in the creation trio raids
Also what do you think the gen IV raids will be, and what evolutions will be the most valuable?
They remove and add Tier 2-3 (and sometimes 1) based on counters to current boss so that logic fails. I would assume the logic is this: they're drawing out Gen I until Celebi drops, in which case Gen II legendaries will appear in boxes etc.
I do agree they will drop Gen IV soonish - I'm thinking wave 1 end of August OR end of September BUT NOT LEGENDARIES. (1 month for each Regi, 2 weeks per shiny Groudon/Rayquaza, overlap unknown.)
not al of the current raid bosses are counters for regice; jolteon, electabuzz, karp, manectric, mawile, it would make more sense if they were, but only machamp and sudowoondo are the only things that can counter, and to a small degree tyranitar, but the other others, aerodactyl, onyx rhydon, golem, are all weak to regice (those last three are weak to every move regice has) so that doesnt really seem to be the case
I'm guessing Gen 4 will drop sometime near the end of summer or shortly after. Between wrapping up the Regi raids and potentially doing short runs for the rest of the weather trio I'd still give it a few months.
Gen 3 was led off with the weather trio so it's entirely possible they'll do the same with the creation trio.That and they know they'll need to make T5 raids exciting again; People in my raid group are already burnt out on Regice, it'll be more of the same for the other two.
As far as potential raid bosses, who knows? If you look at the list of all bosses from Gens 2 and 3 it's pretty underwhelming past the legendaries so I don't have my hopes up. Gen 2 has 2 at most raid bosses that are exciting, of those two one is only exciting for building up candy reserves for its Gen 4 evolution (which depending on where you live you may already have 900+ candies). The only Gen 3 raids worth doing are only worth it because they're raid exclusive Pokemon, with one of them being available via research now. I wish they'd shake it up when Gen 4 drops but I just don't see it happening.
