Any advanced information about the chances of lucky pkmn?
After I already gave up significant value to trade for 3 shiny CD Charizards without getting a lucky one (all crap IV, one at least 14 3 11) I wondered, if there is any further research done yet, how high the chances actually are to get a lucky and what and how much any other factor (friendship lvl?) aside of age plays a role.
I traded for summer 2016 ones, so not much I could have done with the age, but maybe its worth waiting for best friends?
Answers
Yesterday I traded 68 times. I got 1 lucky, on my 68th trade. Then I stopped. Lucky days and unlucky days. The prize was a level 20 Psychic Exeggutor that started 1644 and went to 1654 15a/15/12.
Other days have been much better, which is why I went til I got one for the day.
I’ve done a special trade legendary for legendary (or shiny for legendary) every single day. Not one has turned lucky, legendary special trades are a complete candy grinder, IMO
My experience, over an extremely small sample size (3 trades since lucky system started) has been that trading away my oldest stuff (from 2016) has given me lucky pokemon 2 times, and something from 2017 did not. Still have a 2016 SC Gengar with awful IVs that I want to trade like for like to get a lucky one with better than awful IVs. The one I already traded away went from 1/7/7 (ads) to 15/13/15, and I got a lucky Tangela in return. The trade where I received a SC Gengar didn't get lucky.
Also traded an old BS Snorlax for one that my trade partner just got in July as a special research result, got a lucky one from that.
Very small sample size, but very strong effect.
It sounds to me as the odds that a higher badge in a gym grants you to get an EX invitation. Basically you raid in a gym for the very first time and get the invite.
My numbers are not so impressive:
241 trades
21 lucky
2 lucky legendary (traded a legendary every day since this trading event started).
I haven't got better odds from 2016 or 2017 pokemon. In fact, most of my lucky came from pokemon caught on the last couple of days. Including the two lucky raikou
Traded 35 or so today, only lucky was a 75% 777cp exeggcute. My luck is low right now. Just catch and save/ trade the more interesting high level/lower IV ones. Go in expecting very little and be surprised when you get just a bit more than that. I trade almost everything, many of the ones that stick aren’t worth the battery that was used.
That is a very tough mindset for some case scenarios. I did evolve 3 shiny Metagross to get Meteor Mash, but they all suck hell in terms of IV. I did it with the intention of taking a chance for lucky with some friends, who did exactly the same.
The thing is that transferring them is not an option for me once there was 124 candy investment on them. Yet, the only chance for becoming useful and target of further stardust and candy investment to power up is that the IV is re-rolled favourably. Lucky is the best way to ensure that, but very sadly it can't be strongly influenced even with mons from 2016. Hell, I'm willing to give away a hundo Gyarados from October 2016 for that lucky chance, but only if I really understand the % chance to get it.
Now I'm curious. What would motivate you to trade, then?
As a player who doesn't really need anything, the advantages I see are:
- Helping friends by giving away my spare meta relevant pokemon.
- Getting better IVs
- Getting future relevant lucky pokemon
- Easy candy.
I'm currently trying to get lucky piloswine, magneton, etc to prepare for gen 4. Or lucky version of legendaries with good IVs. IMO using trading to complete the pokedex it is indeed a waste of stardust until you reach "best friend" status.
I trade many pokemon between accounts (>100 daily) and start noticing some patterns. I hope these patterns will be confirmed soon by further SR research.
First of all, I strongly feel that PoGo somehow tracks either the total number of trades done with a specific friend, OR the number of trading days. This last element could be nr of trading days in the past week/month, or nr of consecutive days traded (similar to e.g. 7 day pokestop streak). After a long streak of consecutive trading days my odds drop ridiculously far to 1/100 or so. When at the same day i would do some trades with a NEW friend, i only need 1/10 or so. While lucky chances are small, these two extremes become noticeable!
From the perspective of Niantic this would fit in their vision for the game: connect real life friends, and prevent that multiaccount persons get a benefit.
When i would have time and the resources i would further investigate exactly this!
