10K egg drop rate? Maybe some changes are needed?
Has anyone else noticed a big decline in the drop rate of 10K eggs?
In the past 5 days, I've hatched and collected 32 eggs. Only 1 has been a 10K. I've been hitting good pokestops that traditionally drop the occasional10K egg, with no luck. This morning I picked up 6 eggs, 2 at 2K, and 4 at 5K.
Quite honestly, the only reason that I hatch eggs is to get the rarer mons in my area, and they all come from 10K. I'll hatch 5 or 6 today, and if I don't get any 10K from them, I'll be rethinking the entire process of egg hatching. (Which means that I won't be spending coins on incubators, Niantic!!!)
Quite honestly, once a player hits level 30 or so, the only reason to hatch eggs is for the rare mon and the candy bonus. Since the max level of a hatched mon is 20, it is not cost effective to hatch any for the purpose of power up. Unless the mon has perfect/near perfect IV's, I'm never going to power up a hatched mon 30+ times to get it to my max.
Maybe it's time for Niantic to make a few minor changes?
Increase the max level of an egg hatch? Maybe make it up to level 30?
Write code such that the pokestop looks at the players level and adds a weight factor into the equation. The higher level you are adds an increased chance of getting a higher level egg, or a 10K vs. a 2 or 5K? Not every egg should be 10K, but increase the chances of getting one.
Loyal players should get rewarded. Niantic basically did that with the daily bonuses for stops and catches, but those only require a single stop or catch. A lot of "players" only log in for the 3 minutes it takes to get their bonus.
Egg hatching requires actual game time. I walk more than 15K daily on average, and I'm in game the entire time. But it's a waste to hatch 30+ (worthless) eggs and not get at least 1 10K in return.
Answers
I don't think egg drops should be affected by level or even raise the egg level cap. Adds a bit more work to level up hatched Mon but you are guaranteed good IVs so 20 power ups to get it competitive isn't bad.
I do think the regular RNG is crazy in this game, from movesets to egg drops, so make egg drops from 2k, 5k, and 10k a bit more even than 5k eggs clogging my inventory
There's simply more 5K species in there, the game first determines the pokemon that you are getting, then it assigns the appropiate egg, since there are more common 2 and 5 pokemon, you'll get more 2 and 5 k eggs.
Here's the relevant research:
https://thesilphroad.com/science/secret-egg-rarity-tiers-pokemon-go
While all of this could just be coincidence, of my last 82 eggs received over the last 5ish days 46 have been 2K. This is waaaay out of line with the accepted recent 2K mon drop rates/percentages from Silph road. I have received 5 10K eggs during that time which is low but not not completely out of the realm of published stats. I'm hoping nothing changed since eggs were kind of OK for the first time.
Of course both of our sample sizes are way too small to have any concrete meaning. It won't be long before someone else posts some recent rates that are along current known percentages I'm sure. I just really hope that eggs haven't been ruined again.
Just a bad luck streak.
Per silph road, 10k eggs are 11.7% of all eggs (and almost half of them are drats or pinecones)
30 hatches without a 10k egg is rare, but not incredibly so (I'm calculating 2%ish - which means)
Also, are you up to date on egg distances? The stuff that comes from 10k eggs is pretty much rare everywhere - both 5k and 2k eggs have non-garbage in them since gen2 came. They moved a lot of stuff that was in 10k eggs into 5k ones...
I don't think distribution is related to the pokestop at all.... just your account. How else would a stop "know" that you have an open egg slot anyway? So the game already "knows" all about you (e.g., at level 30 you start getting max revives) and RNG determines what kind of egg you will get.
That's the conclusion I have comes to (I'm level 32, hatched 446 eggs, get about one 10k every 1-2 weeks, more since the last event).
I do think the hatched pokemon level should increase, maybe to 25.
