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10k egg drop rate and hatch distribution?

My personal experience has been that 10k egg drop rate has increased, thankfully. But it hasn't done me a lot of good. Someone posted a link here that I thought said Dratini were the most common hatch now (33%?). I last hatched a Dratini on 3/2. With 21 eggs since then, I have Sudowoodo x5, Pineco x5, Mantine x4, Gligar x 3, Skarmony x2, Mareep x1, Larvitar x1. Zero Chansey, Snorlax, Lapras or Dratini.
I understand RNG, of course, and these eggs come from a variety of stops, in parks, downtown, riverside, etc. I am curious if I'm just cursed, or if this distribution is more typical. None of these eggs were banked; all collected in the last 4 weeks.

Asked by UncleJohnsHand8 years 1 month ago
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by aSp 8 years 1 month ago

https://thesilphroad.com/science/secret-egg-rarity-tiers-pokemon-go

Silph Road did some data collecting - I will say that I think the eggs are more biome and/or region dependant than what they claim, just from anecdotal evidence and people discussing this article.
They do say that there is not enough data to determine one way or the other if region/biome has an effect.

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Thanks for the input and link. Following that thread, I found the chart that breaks out the hatch frequencies based on the egg distances:

https://www.reddit.com/r/TheSilphRoad/comments/5yk32h/calculated_percentage_chance_of_a_particular/

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So it looks like I'm "lucky" after all to get 33% of my 10k eggs to hatch Skarmony and Sudowoodo and not be "cursed" with 33% Dratini + Larvitar. ;o)

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As the guy above said, according to the available data, it's all random, so it migth just be bad luck (I hatched 4 pinecos and 1 gilgar off my last 5 10k's so you are not alone), One thing to note is the pokemon seems to be determined first, and then the egg, so the pokestop will first decide randomly that it will give you say a gilgar, and then will give you the appropriate egg to walk, so looking at just your 10k statistics might not be representative of the real situation.

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by sta 8 years 1 month ago

I believe eggs are most likely biome dependent. No hard proof, just my gut feeling based on limited set of data. Out of this belief, if possible, I now try to collect eggs from those stops that have given me good 10k hatches before.

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My latest 10k's have been, 4 Dratini, 3 Larvitar, 2 pineco, Chansey, Gligar, and a Mantine.

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definatly increased 10k egg drop chance, but nothing good, just bullshit
(im talking about you dratini, where are you?)

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by PFP1 8 years 1 month ago

I also have the impression that the 10K drop rate has increased.
Since Gen 2 I have hatched 20 10K eggs:
- 8 pinecos
- 2 larvitar
- 4 dratini
- 1 snorlax
- 1 lapras
- 2 gligar
- 1 mareep
- 1 sudowoodo
So basically 50% are useless but I can't complain about the other 50%

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by Sebhes 8 years 1 month ago

Unlike what others state, I feel that eggs have become less/non biome dependent after gen2 came out.

Regarding eggs I have hatched 22 10 KM eggs and hatched the most incredible Pokemon. Only had 6 "useless" Pineco. Rest was dratini, snorlax, lapras, mareep, larvitar, sudowoodo and chansey

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I did not receive any 10k eggs for several (8 or 9) weeks and was convinced that the drop rate had not increased.

Then last weekend I received and hatched 2 10k's - 2 x Dratini and 1 x Larvitar. I currently have a 4th at 7.5k so far.

So in my view, in the long-term average it hasn't really changed.

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