So I've done many Raikou raids. When it comes to the catching part, I do everything by the book. And THIS is what happened. Actually, this is just one of the many cases. This instance just happened to be recorded so I can prove my point - there is something wrong with Excellent Throws.
https://youtu.be/4hyWgdGiZ1A
(catching part starts at 4:33)
Or am I wrong? Was it just bad luck? This was the 4th Raikou that ran away from me today.
I need help or a hug now.
it's already been demonstrated that excellant throws usually miss out on curve ball bonus for a multiplier of 2
were a great throw from 9-6 oclock for a clockwise throw will more reliably get curve ball for on average 2.5 multiplier.
but other than that raikous catch rate dose suck with a fairly neutral delivery of golden raz (mostly only used on 1890cp+) my catch rate is about 1:3.
Yup, go for Great Curves over Excellent Curves, but always remember RNGesus is a fickle deity. The one Instinct player in my last Entei raid where everyone else was Valor was the only one to catch it, 10 years old, first ball, straight throw, no curve, no Nice/Great/Excellent, no gym control bonus, though yes golden razz. Also his first Entei attempt, whereas it took me 10 raids with every throw being a golden razz, curve, and great/excellent before I managed to catch a single one.
First of all, that's some of the best throwing I've seen! When your cranked the circle extra small for the last few throws I didn't think it was realistic, but then you hit every single one excellent. Quite impressive. That makes it so much worse that it ran.
Anyway, maybe try great throws? I don't know if excellent throws are bugged or not, but there is definitely a curveball bug. Try for a medium great throw and avoid the bottom left corner with your clockwise curves. I hope your luck improves!
https://pokemongo.gamepress.gg/guct-berry-throw-bonus-multipliers
The exp bonus for ring size is discrete, but the catch bonus is continuous. I aim for somewhere within about 1/2 - 1/3 size ring. That is too big to get the "Excellent" experience bonus, but is still a better catch bonus than larger "Great" hits.
Like I said, I have my doubts. The entire evidence for the dependence of catch multiplier on circle radius within each category is based on the radius being sent to the server. That is very weak evidence since you anyway need the radius to calculate whether it is nice, great or excellent throw. Despite what the article said, there is logic to send the radius to the server and not just the bonus category since this way niantic can tweak the numbers as they please without having to release an update.
It does kinda feel like catching the legendaries has suddenly gotten harder. My success rate for Raikou was 8 out of 17 (It annoyed me a little that the last two both ran away and wrecked my >50% rate), but it took 6 raids just to catch my first Entei.
What was even stranger was that I then caught the next one after that on a throw with no bonuses at all. After so many excellent curves that didn't help at all, a Pinapped throw that lagged enough to miss the accuracy circle and ignore the curve snapped shut like it was easy.
I am just suspecting if the curveball bug happens more often on Raikou... When the game fails to detect you are throwing a curve ball, even you're hitting excellent, the catch rate is lower than curveball and not getting bonus. That's why great throws seem to be a safe choice to get a constant catch rate. If all 14 balls are registetred as curveball, I can only say you lost to RNG today.
The probability of flee is already determined at encounter. In a small percentage of encounters, the probability of flee is near certain, rendering the trainer's actions inconsequential in altering the inevitable, negative outcome.
In other words, a certain, small percentage of encounters cannot be captured, no matter what you do. That's the cruel part of RNG. Likewise for those with certain capture (The kind part of RNG). (Yes, the personification of RNG was intended, despite it being a term in probability theory, because, you know, we pray to it like a deity.)
I'm pretty sure this is 100% false. My understanding is that with regular wild pokemon, the flee rate is calculated after each unsuccessful catch attempt. Like this: throw ball, hit mon, mon breaks out, RNG determines flee or not, repeat. Raid bosses will not flee so if they have a flee rate, it is superseded in the code. The only way it flees is if you run out of balls. The flee rate has nothing to do with it.
https://pokemongo.gamepress.gg/flee-rate
I believe the flee-rate mechanics for raid pokemon is the same as for regular pokemon. The only diff is that the number of mandatory throws (i.e., the number of premier balls) is superimposed over the flee mechanics, thereby, masking the flee mechanics. Nevertheless, the flee mechanics would still be at work.
That's some interesting insight, but what about the catch rate multiplier? So you think it actually doesn't exist? I need clarification on your theory. What's more, from my capture rate so far, Suicune: 24/28, Raikou: 4/12, the flee rate mechanics doesn't work constantly here, so your only explanation to this is bad RNG?
