I have similar questions--and I can answer one of yours. I have successfully finished 4 raids (one tier 1, one tier 2, two tier 4) and have not received a TM. I just beat a snorlax and received 4 rare candies and a bunch of normal revives. So clearly you aren't guaranteed one with a tier 4 raid.
I would like to know the %ages of getting a TM, as I am 0-4.