Catch Mechanics

Catching Pokemon in Pokemon GO is simple: keep throwing Poke Balls until you catch the Pokemon.

Each time you hit the Pokemon with a ball, there is a probability it will be caught, which depends on the bonuses used. If the Pokemon is not caught, there is a chance it will run away.

The probability of catching a Pokemon depends on:

• Pokemon species
• Pokemon level
• Ball type (Poke, Great, or Ultra)
• Curveball
• Razz Berry
• Throw bonus (size of inner circle)
• Pokemon Medals

You can check out our Catch Mechanics Week article series for more detailed analysis.

The GamePress team analysed a large dataset to figure out exactly how each factor affects catch probability and interacts with each other. We discovered the general formula for catch probability, among other things. This page summarizes our findings.

Also, try the new GamePress Catch Calculator to see how all these variables affect your catch rate!

Yessir! Here is the equation that determines catch probability. To check if a Pokemon is caught, the game generates a random number between 0 and 1. If that number is lower than the value given by the equation, you caught the Pokemon! Since this equation (after much work) includes every catch bonus, we call it the Grand Unified Catch Theory (GUCT):

$$Probability= 1- \left(1-\frac{BCR}{2*CPM} \right)^{Multipliers}$$

where,

$$Multipliers=Ball*Curve*Berry*Throw*Medal $$

That's quite a mouthful! Let's piece it together. Inside the parenthesis, you see

$$\frac{BaseCaptureRate}{2*CPMultiplier}$$

This formula is the probability of catching a pokemon with just a Poke Ball, no fancy bonuses. BaseCaptureRate is a number which depends on the species. And CPMultiplier reflects how high level / how high CP the Pokemon is. The value of BCR/2*CPM can go from about 2.7% for a level 30 Dragonite, to 298% for a level 1 Magikarp, in which case it is just reduced to 100% catch rate.

Let's continue. Since 1 - x gives the probability that x doesn't happen, we can rewrite the equation more simply:

$$Probability= 1- \left(pokeball fail chance \right)^{Multipliers}$$

Check it out: If Multipliers=2, then the equation equals the chance that you don't fail twice in a row with a Poke Ball catch. Since Multipliers is determined by which bonuses are used, this means that:

Applying any kind of bonus effectively gives you the chance to throw more than one Poke Ball per try.

So bonuses will definitely increase your catch rate. But if you didn't have a 100% catch chance with a Poke Ball, you will never reach exactly 100% no matter what bonuses you have.

Grand Unified Catch Theory is more than a single formula, it also involves finding out the actual bonus multipliers. Here is a nice table of them:

Bonus Type	Multiplier
Razz Berry	1.5
Silver Pinap Berry	1.8
Golden Razz Berry	2.5
Curveball	1.7
Throw	2-r
Poke Ball	1.0
Great Ball	1.5
Ultra Ball	2.0
Bronze	1.1
Silver	1.2
Gold	1.3

For each bonus, if it wasn't used, the factor just equals 1 so it doesn't contribute.

What is this 2-r, you ask? The Throw bonus depends r, the radius of the colored target ring (from 1 to 0, with r=1 when target ring is same size as the white ring). That means the Throw bonus ranges from 1 to 2, as the size of target ring decrease in size. You must hit inside the inner circle to get a Throw bonus. No bonus is awarded when you land outside the circle.

In the end, you might want to know the average probability of catching a Pokemon, if you keep throwing Poke Balls until the Pokemon is caught or flees. Let's say the probability that you catch the Pokemon with an individual throw is P given by GUCT, and the flee rate F. Then the probability of catching the pokemon is:

$$P + P(1-P)(1-F) + P (1-P)^2 (1-F)^2 + ... $$

This is a geometric series with ratio of (1-P)(1-F), whose sum is:

$$=\frac{P}{P+F-PF}$$

One takeaway from the geometric sum is it depends on the ratio of P and F. Since F is fixed, the higher the value of P, the less chance for a Pokemon to flee before you can catch it. Stacking your bonuses is how you increase catch probability P.

Consider a level 30 Dragonite with 4% base capture rate and 5% flee rate:

Bonuses	P	F	Overall Catch %	Flee %
Poke Ball	3%	5%	36%	64%
Ultra Ball	5%	5%	53%	47%
Ultra Ball, Razz Berry	8%	5%	63%	37%
Ultra Ball, Razz Berry, Curveball	13%	5%	75%	25%
Ultra Ball, Razz Berry Curveball, Great Throw Gold/Gold Medal	24%	5%	86%	14%

These these numbers yourself with the Catch Calculator!

The color of target ring gives some idea of catch probability. It reflects a partial solution of GUCT without curveball and throw bonuses. Let's call this probability BasicCatchRate. $$BasicCatchRate= 1- \left(1-\frac{BCR}{2*CPM} \right)^{Ball*Berry*Medal}$$

Ball Type	Multiplier
Poke Ball	1
Great Ball	1.5
Ultra Ball	2

It translates to color as following: $$BasicCatchRate = \frac{1}{2}(1+(Green-Red)/255)$$
Where,

• Green is the green color value (up to 255).
• Red is the red color value (up to 255).

These are the HTML hex color codes based on RGB values. The formula was deduced by taking screenshots of in-game catches and recording the pixel color of target ring, and then comparing to the catch rate value returned by the server for that catch.