YES YOU WILL!! don't give up. I'm at lvl 27 and hatched bunch of 10km eggs but almost all are eevees and non evolved to vaporeon. I had a badluck for eggs worse than you do haha but I got 3 snorlax 3 dragonite and 3 lapras all in the wild after a long wait so im pretty sure you will have one as well. I know mine is not that much because I have a friend that's got 11 snorlax haha it really depends. Or the best thing to do as of this time is to make use of what you have. I mean im sure you have exeggutor, poliwrath, arcanine, slowbro, and vaporeon right? they are surely a hell of a monsters =)
Unlucky or normal?
About a week ago, I decided to buy a bunch of incubators and see what happens. So far I've mainly cracked open a bulk of 5 km eggs and to my surprise 4 10 km eggs, 3 of which have hatched. This is a bit of a rant for the 10 km eggs. My first egg hatched a dratini. Cool. Obviously a nice hatch. To my disappointment, I found that it had 71% IVs, literally 2 higher than a Dragonaire I caught in the wild. I was shocked to have a Pokémon out of a 10 km or any egg in general to have such low IVs. My second hatched a Hitmonlee. I've never seen one so not much to say other than meh. The third egg hatched an electabuzz which was the final straw for me. So far, 3/4 10 km eggs hatched trash. When all the gyms around me and I mean EVERY ONE has a bunch of Lapras, Snorlax and Dragonaire defending it it's infuriating to not have any...
I'm starting to lose hope. Have I just had bad luck or am I missing something? How can everyone where I live have these rare and strong Pokémon?
Answers
Lot of players cheat in this game.
They use 3th party sites to scan areas for rare pokemons and drive their cars and bicycles there for the catch.
Also they scan for areas which spawn dratinis and then they go get the dratini whenever it spawns.
Else they wont even bother to visit location unless it is dratini.
And not to even mention gps spoofers....jeez
Hang in there man. You're not alone in this at all.
For perspective, I have the following number of candies for these 10k mons (I've caught only a handful of each in the wild):
- Onix = 665
- Magmar = 567
- Electabuzz = 509
- Scyther = 354
- Jynx = 288
How many Snorlax's or Lapras' have I hatched? 0
-_-
Hah! I've prolly spent $100 on incubators and hatched 714 eggs (not sure how many 10k but it's been a lot) I've hatched one Snorlax, one Dratini, and 0 Lapras. Conversely, one my sons has never spent a dollar on the game, has hatched around 4 10k eggs ever and has got both a Snorlax and a Lapras. I hope your luck is good because if you are frustrated now. Oh boy!
I think you need to re-evaluate your expectations. If you're really want to compare yourself to everyone else, then I have the perfect egg hatching chart for you.
According to the 2 different egg hatching charts I found that documented the probability of getting each pokemon from an egg using data gathered from players around the world, Hitmonlee actually has a lower chance of hatching than Lapras, Snorlax or Dratini at 2.6% to 3.3%. (Lapras: 4.3% to 4.5%, Snorlax: 4.6% to 5.1%, Dratini: 3.5% to 5.5%, Electabuzz: 7.4% to 8.7%)
What this means is that you've managed to hatch a pokemon that is so rare that statistically, a player would have to hatch about 38 eggs to get, in your 2nd egg. I don't see why anyone would complain, unless filling up their pokedex is not their main goal.
What you are really complaining about is that people in your neighbourhood are hatching Snorlax and Lapras easily, which you presumed to be true based on the fact that they have that pokemon in the gym. Now, I certainly don't know if you are located in an area where no rare pokemons ever spawn, and perhaps that's why you assumed that egg hatching is the only method to acquire one. But I'm pretty sure you haven't ask any of those players how they really came to acquire those rare pokemons. Unless you're actually playing the game 24/7 and actually do travel all over the town/city and are sure that there are no rare pokemons spawnpoints, I wouldn't be so quick to accept that conclusion.
I, myself, have never hatched any Snorlax before, and I only play the game within 5km of my home, but I managed to catch a Snorlax right in the middle of the streets, in the middle of the night. There were a group of people already there before I found the Snorlax on my sightings even though it was 3am, which isn't even a rare sight during the few weeks when the game launched in my country. However, I have never seen another Snorlax at night in my neighbourhood since then, even though my sister reported a few more appearance while I was asleep in the afternoon.
tl;dr
You're exaggerating. According to statistic, you're good with those egg hatchs. If your goal was only to get Lapras, Snorlax and Dratini with good ivs in 3 eggs hatched consecutively, then you're either over-estimating the probability of hatching those 3 pokemons, or you decided you're unlucky even without checking to see what's the percentage of players who hasn't managed to hatch those 3 pokemons is.
source: https://rankedboost.com/pokemon-go/egg-hatching-chart/
https://netherfable.com/pgo-egg-hatch-distribution/
Ok I guess I got lucky. Haha. I think I read somewhere that Lapras and snorlax hatch rate is around 3% so I'm just about hitting the average if that's true. I also live and work near water and I'm pretty sure I got 2 of my laprases from a stop off a pier. But I have no idea where I got the 10 km eggs for the snorlaxes
Damn. I feel for you dude. Try getting a 10km egg near water like a lake. Not sure if it's a myth but I heard the environment where u pick up the eggs has a lot to do with what type of mom you'll hatch. I got that advice from someone and it seemed to have worked. I've waited a loooooooong time to hatch a Lapras. I even caught one in the wild before I hatched one.